Democrats know how to influence Republican politics to make a difference next November: promote Trump as a candidate in 2023 and then don’t let him compete in 2024. Many Republican voters don’t seem to understand they are following the Democrat script.
Is this to be the motif for the 2024 campaign?
Phony charges targeted at a single individual who is both very well-liked and very much disliked by tens of millions of Americans leads to very heated, very emotional responses; yet, we need to look at this race dispassionately and analytically if we are to make the right choice. One can be sympathetic to (and very concerned about) the injustice done to Donald Trump while also advocating for a new leader to build upon his accomplishments. Does Trump have a chance to win? Will he be allowed to compete fairly? I think not in both cases. Trump has also alienated far too many people, both within his party and without, too many for him to have a chance at winning.
Republicans should want to win the election more than they want Trump. What will Trump’s loyal supporters do when blue state governors and legislatures remove him from the ballot (because he is a convicted felon) and destroy any chance he has to win even before the voting starts? Democrats will feel no shame; they will give some silly reason and one-channel media will support them. Republicans will cry foul, but, at that point, what can they do? What can you do when the referee cheats your team and takes away the chance for a winning touchdown?
If we are to maintain or revive the country we once had, Republicans must win. If we are to have free and fair elections, Republicans must win. If we are to restore the timeless principles outlined in our Declaration of Independence, Republicans must win. If justice is to prevail, Republicans must win. If we are to maintain our world standing and tackle real (e.g. national debt, threat of foreign adversaries), not phony (e.g. climate change, persecution of transgenders) problems, Republicans must win. We have no chance at a meaningful future otherwise. However, I am doubtful Trump can win or will be allowed to win. We need an alternative.
Battling for Control of the Republican Party
President Trump himself believes his legal troubles are helping his campaign. This seems to be a part of his actual strategy.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-mugshot-alina-habba-1822653
Donald Trump having his mugshot released after his arrest on Thursday was “probably one of the best things that ever happened to him,” according to one of his legal representatives.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/25/ipsos-poll-trump-indictment-00112755
To hear Donald Trump tell it, the fact that he keeps getting indicted by prosecutors is a boon to his reelection effort. “Any time they file an indictment, we go way up in the polls,” he said at a dinner shortly after he was charged by the Justice Department with attempting to overturn the 2020 election.
His numbers do indeed rise after each new indictment. Throughout the summer, he has consolidated his lead in the Republican race. Governor DeSantis, his only real competition in the Republican race, has has lost ground.
Trump appears to have a sizeable portion of the Republican electorate locked up; they remain steadfastly loyal. This is the problem for Governor DeSantis. There is also a sizeable “never Trump” contingent within the Republican party, but Governor Christie, Mike Pence (and others) are targeting this block (as evidenced during the first Republican debate last week). Governor DeSantis has probably alienated the “never Trump-ers” by being largely sympathetic to Trump on legal issues. After the first Trump indictment last March, DeSantis publicly announced he would not extradite Trump from Florida to New York https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2023-03-30/read-desantis-says-florida-wont-extradite-trump.
“The weaponization of the legal system to advance a political agenda turns the rule of law on its head.
“It is un-American.
“The Soros-backed Manhattan District Attorney has consistently bent the law to downgrade felonies and to excuse criminal misconduct. Yet, now he is stretching the law to target a political opponent.
“Florida will not assist in an extradition request given the questionable circumstances at issue with this Soros-backed Manhattan prosecutor and his political agenda.”
Many of us believe Trump had numerous outstanding accomplishments as president. We believe we were better off under Trump. Governor DeSantis, on the other hand, turned Florida from a swing state to a solidly Republican state by doing all the things that everyone else talks about, including some Trump didn’t do. DeSantis did the thing first and talked about it second, a complete reversal of the political paradigm. He can accomplish these things on a larger scale as president–and without the baggage that Trump carries.
Without the Trump loyalists and the “Never Trumpers”, it will be hard for DeSantis to win. Still, the race is not over. We don’t have President Guiliani or President Gingrich, two candidates who had large poll leads late in the cycle. We didn’t have a President Cruz or President Santorum, two candidates who won the Iowa caucuses.
Quixotic Missions
I long for a legitimate and substantive campaign, but we can’t get Trump on the debate stage and there were far too many other candidates on the debate stage last week. Fox News did job focusing candidates on abortion, the Ukraine war, climate change, the national debt, and other substantive issues. Still, each candidate had roughly ten minutes, not enough time for people to decide.
I can’t fathom anyone but Trump or DeSantis from the current field winning. Why are Mike Pence and Asa Hutchinson still running? They seem like decent and nice folks, but they poll slightly better than Liz Cheney among Republicans. Governor Hutchinson got himself on the debate stage by paying college kids $20 to bring in a $1 donation; that demonstrates his popularity https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/22/text-for-pay-campaign-asa-hutchinson-00112298.
Governor Christie could have been the Republican nominee in 2012, but stepped aside for his friend Mitt Romney. He has done nothing to endear himself to Republicans since; his stock has dropped dramatically. He aligned with Trump in 2016, but they are now on the outs. Christie’s his only hope is to appeal to “Never Trumpers”. It won’t be enough. Nobody knows Governor Burgum (except as the guy with the bushy eyebrows) and Senator Scott; they seem likeable and say good things, but both are too soft spoken and not well known. I very much like Larry Elder, but he couldn’t get on the first debate stage due to his lack of support.
Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy round out the current field. Neither has a chance to win unless both Trump and DeSantis exit, but both are smart, quick on their feet, and add substance to the debate. Both stood out in the first Republican debate (one in a good way and one not-so-good). A debate with just four: Trump, DeSantis, Haley, and Ramaswamy could be very good for the Republican party and the country. We could have that rare substantive debate of the issues. We need to talk seriously about issues, not focus on personalities or Democrat priorities. We should not be distracted by political chicanery and instead determine how we are going to fix such problems. Let’s hope a few candidates realize they are on a Quixotic mission and detracting from a debate among the more serious candidates.
Trump’s Legal Problems
The Trump loyalists are not dissuaded by indictments. They see him as standing up to injustice. They seem him taking on slings and arrows for us all. They believe he did a good job in his first term. They believe he won the last election. They see his restoration to office as the ultimate justice and payback.
The problem, however, is a large portion of the general public cannot tolerate Trump; they hate him passionately. They will never vote for him. Even we who like Trump, who think he did a good job, don’t like his treatment of others or many of his actions. Trump loyalists may carry Trump to the nomination, but it will be tough sledding afterwards. Trump should beat Biden. Biden is very unpopular, but Biden gets the substantial “I hate Trump” vote. There is no “Never Biden” coalition among Democrats. Such a wing in the Republican party is a big problem for Trump, not so much in the primaries, but certainly in the general election.
In general, Americans just don’t want a Biden/Trump rematch.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/14/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll/index.html
About 6 in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they want their party to nominate someone other than former President Donald Trump in 2024 (62%), while a similar 59% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they’d like to see someone other than President Joe Biden at the top of their ticket in the next presidential election. When pressed, though, a majority of Republican-aligned voters who say they’d like someone other than Trump to win the nomination indicate they would ultimately vote for him if he did emerge as the nominee. An even larger majority of Democratic-aligned voters with a similar opposition to Biden as their party’s nominee say they would vote for him in a general election if he won their party’s primary.
In other words, despite low approval ratings, Biden can still win if running against Trump. Democrats are counting on this matchup. Furthermore, the American public does not share Republicans’ angst over Donald Trump’s legal treatment; therefore, it will continue unabated.
The double standards are so apparent:
- Trump is charged regarding classified documents but Biden, Hillary Clinton, Mike Pence, and others have all had recent issues and have not been charged. In 2016, James Comey, on national TV, cited a myriad of problems with Hillary Clinton’s sloppy and irregular handling of classified documents–and then said he would not charge her. She got special treatment during FBI interviews. Her husband covertly met with the US Attorney General Loretta Lynch just days before she was let off the hook. Now, with Trump, a different set of rules is applied.
- Why is Trump charged for claiming an election was rigged? That is not a crime. Why charge his lawyers for simply defending his right to make the claim? Why is he being charged with racketeering under the RICO statute? He and his associates are part of an on-going criminal enterprise? Charge Jamie Raskin for challenging the election in the Senate on January 6, 2017. Democrats contested more states than Republicans did January 6, 2021. Stacey Abrams, Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, and others never accepted the results of their election losses. Charge them too for their conspiracies.
- Why charge Trump for a payment to the infamous Stormy Daniel? Is this really a crime that should impact the 2024 election?
Yet, 90% of Democrats and a majority of Independents think the process is fair.
Trump also has a problem with the potential jury pools: Manhattan: 12% voted Trump; DC: 5% voted for Trump; Fulton Co. Ga: 26% voted for Trump. Trump has four court cases scheduled throughout the first half of 2024. He is charged with 41 distinct felonies. How can he run a campaign while spending so much of his time (and tens of millions of dollars) defending himself?
The charges are specious; yet, the Democrat strategy is proving effective and impacting the electorate’s opinion. There is not a serious effort among Republicans, the media, or the general populace for this election interference to end–or even to delay it until after the election.
The classified documents case seems the most problematic for Trump. He admitted on tape he could have declassified documents and then said he didn’t do it. He kept plans for an Iranian invasion because he wanted a talking point against General Millie. He got his talking point, but he also shared what he shouldn’t have shared. Hillary Clinton did far worse, but was not prosecuted. Few remember or care about Hillary Clinton any more. Democrats know it is a double-standard, but they have no shame. Will the jury even realize the process is unfair and unjust?
Let’s say the chance Trump is convicted on any particular charge is 1 in 10 (10%). With these odds, the chance he is convicted of at least one of forty-one total charges is still 98.7%. A conviction is almost certain, in other words.
The legal process alone will harm the Trump campaign. If convicted, will he go to jail before the election ends? Will he be allowed on the ballot in enough states to give him a chance to win?
Furthermore, Biden won’t have to run a campaign himself; he barely ran one the last time. He will refuse to debate Trump; he will repeat the same silly mantra that Trump is a scoundrel who tried to steal the election in 2020. They managed to squash one debate in 2020, much to Trump’s chagrin; they will squash all debates this time. Is Democracy furthered in such a scenario?
Vivek is Going to Save Us?
Vivek Ramaswamy was a bomb thrower in the first Republican debate. He wants people to see him as the Trump-like candidate who will take on media and the bureaucratic swamp. He was clearly ready to rumble, but not always at the right time. He said all the candidates (except him) on stage were bought and paid for. You may dislike politicians but they are not all corrupt, and he is not the only one as pure as snow. He criticized others had memorized lines, but he too had prepared lines, including one from President Obama.
I wonder also: what deal has Vivek made with Trump? He said months ago Trump should debate. He said it several times. He changed his tune before this debate; he said it didn’t matter that Trump skipped it. Vivek was right initially; Trump should have been at the debate. Why does Vivek let him off the hook now? Vivek also said during the actual debate that Trump was the best president of the 21st century. Praise your competition during this debate? Also, Vivek is the only candidate Trump has not attacked directly. Is Vivek running for president or for a spot on Trump’s Team? Nikki Haley also went toe to toe with Vivek and said his foreign policy inexperience shows. She clearly got the better of him in the exchange. Overall, I find Vivek inauthentic, although I can see he is a compelling candidate for many.
Instead of attending the debate, Trump met with CNN officials in Milwaukee the same week. CNN officials. He feted them at a steakhouse. Really?
Can we dispense with the Middle School insults, please? Also, why is Trump meeting with CNN officials instead of attending the Republican debate where he belonged? CNN stabbed him in the back for four years, and will go after him again next year. Is defeating and destroying DeSantis, a true conservative and the most likely Republican nominee behind Trump so important that CNN’s help is required? I don’t like the campaign Trump has run to this point. Is Trump the same guy we liked as president?
Where Do We Stand Now?
Some results from first debate have come in:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/25/debate-poll-desantis-ramaswamy-haley/
Twenty-nine percent of Republican primary voters who watched Wednesday’s debate said that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis won, while 26 percent said the same of businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, according to a new poll from The Washington Post, FiveThirtyEight and Ipsos. Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley came in third, at 15 percent.
Again, we see Vivek clearly made an impression. Many like him, but many, like me, also have reservations. His negative ratings are also going up. DeSantis, on the other hand, continues to remain the number one alternative to Trump, edging out Vivek as debate winner. He is not dead yet.
I can understand perfectly how the report of my illness got about, I have even heard on good authority that I was dead. James Ross Clemens, a cousin of mine, was seriously ill two or three weeks ago in London, but is well now. The report of my illness grew out of his illness. The report of my death was an exaggeration. Mark Twain, 1897
A recent Iowa poll showed more favorable results for DeSantis as well. Can DeSantis break through if Trump falters?
But results of the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll show DeSantis does have a lane in Iowa.
His total Iowa “footprint” is 2 percentage points behind Trump: 61% to 63%.
The footprint is measured by adding together those who say the candidate is their first choice for president, those who say the candidate is their second choice and those who are actively considering supporting the candidate.
In other words, those who like Trump like DeSantis as well. They will move from Trump to DeSantis before anyone else. Whether they abandon Trump or not is yet to be determined, but all I can say is DeSantis gets you the good Trump without the bad Trump.
Biden is an exceptionally weak president with very low approval ratings (he also doesn’t have the same legal troubles yet). Biden should lose the race, but only if he runs against a candidate who does not have the high negatives Trump has. If you still choose Trump, ask yourself these questions:
- How can Trump campaign with Trump devoting much of the next fourteen months to fighting legal battles? The process is the punishment. It doesn’t matter if the charges are crap or not.
- Trump can (and probably will) win many legal battles, but one or more charge will likely stick–or stick at least long enough to influence the election. How is he going to counter that? The conviction alone will be enough to dissuade many voters away from Trump.
- Trump has a chance on a level playing field, but will he be allowed on the ballot in all fifty states? My friend in Michigan said that won’t happen in his state, but how can Republicans stop Democrat officials? One or more states will find a reason to remove Trump from the ballot and dare Republicans to challenge. Were Republicans able to stop four indictments the last six months? Will they stop trials in 2024 during the middle of the election cycle? They have been ineffective to this point. The Democrat plan is still on schedule.
- What is Trump’s plan to correct prior election injustices? What is his plan to stop the steal? If nothing changes, won’t the same thing happen again? Democrats are openly rigging the 2024 election currently, yet many folks don’t recognize it as rigging. Not enough folks, including elected Republican officials, are doing enough to stop it. When they begin to act, it will be too late.
- Why will voters who disliked Trump as president (or since) suddenly start liking him now that he has become a victim of DOJ political persecution? They will do what I have done so many times: vote for the candidate they dislike the least.
- How can Trump turn things around by if Biden will not debate him? Trump will not debate fellow Republicans, so what complaint will he provide when Biden avoids him? It may be good strategy, perhaps, but it is not good for our country. Media will sycophantically cover for Biden if he has any kind of fig leaf for not debating Trump.
- Is this race to be a referendum on Biden’s last four years (along with his corruption) or a referendum on Trump’s legal problems? We were better off under Trump, but we will not be allowed to have an issue-oriented debate with Trump as the nominee.
Fighting Back
There has to be an impeachment, a (real) investigation of Hunter Biden, and state attorneys around the country prosecuting Democrats on similar charges. The only way political persecutions will stop is if both sides know there is mutually assured destruction. I am not hopeful Republicans will do what is necessary to stop the political persecution of Trump or to turn up heat on Democrats. Democrats have a plan to win and Republicans have none (at least, so far).
Of course, I would vote for Trump if he is the nominee (I could never vote for a Democrat) but I am doubtful he will ever return to office. We need to make an alternate choice.
Dave https://seek-the-truth.com/about/
https://seek-the-truth.com/
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