Events that will determine the election are either happening now or will very soon. The first presidential debate is June 27, just days away. Speculation was that Trump’s conviction would provide an excuse for Biden to withdraw, but it appears now the debate will proceed as planned. Will Biden be able to withstand a 90-minute debate? Will the debate be between Biden and Trump or between CNN and Trump? Will Trump be able to keep his cool and do better than he did in the first debate of 2020?
President Trump will be sentenced in New York on July 11. Will he be allowed to campaign or will he be restricted for the duration? The Republican Convention is four days later. Coincidence or not?
The Democrat Convention is in August. It appears Democrats will proceed with nominating a feeble geriatric man who is clearly not running the country while in office today. The actual Democrat nominee for all intents and purposes will be the vice-president, Kamala Harris.
On September 20, just three months away, early voting begins in Minnesota and Virginia. By early October, voting begins in many other states.
Any day now we should hear Trump’s VP pick. I am hoping for Ron DeSantis, the best possible choice Trump could make for this year and the party future. I am prepared for a less stellar choice, hopefully not one too disappointing.
The Supreme Court decision in Trump’s presidential immunity claim should be revealed soon (related to Jack Smith’s investigation and upcoming trial on January 6). The court decision could pave the way for another trial to begin this year, but with party conventions around the corner and early voting three months away, it appears unlikely. Who knows for sure though? Conventional wisdom hasn’t been so reliable these days.
In any case, the next six or eight weeks will determine much regarding how the die will be cast in 2024.
Believe the Polls?
The polls, as usual, are non-stop, and discussed frequently. Interpret them however you like, but we are not voting yet, so even if you believe the polls to be accurate, they don’t matter so much. If you doubt the accuracy or the integrity of the polls (you should), the polls should be discounted even more.
Check any news outlet and you will hear of poll after poll showing Trump vs. Biden head-to-head, but there are three other candidates who will collectively draw at least 10% or more of the vote. Why measure a result that will never be manifested? Other polls focus on the national popular vote, but we don’t have national elections for president. We have fifty state elections. We may feel better when our candidate has the early lead, but why examine polls which are not reflective of how the race is measured?
Don’t let the polls influence your decision to vote. Your vote matters. If you kooky neighbors vote, but you don’t, you get the representatives you deserve.
One poll I actually watch these days is President Biden’s job approval. His (RCP average of polls) rating started at 55% in January 2021 and sank to 37% by July 2022, a year-and-a-half later. He recovered to 45% during the last half of 2022, midway through his term. But since he has fallen below 40% again. It has been a steady decline the last year-and-a-half. Biden has tried to turn the tide: student loan forgiveness, last minute border policy changes, straddling the fence on the war on Israel, and now plans to help first time home buyers https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/kamala-harris-announces-55-billion-to-lower-housing-costs/ar-BB1lZca5; https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/25000-down-payment-grant/. None of these giveaways have helped; his rating has not risen above 41% all year. These giveaways will also further inflation, by the way.
Biden’s unpopularity is a significant problem for Democrats. How do you re-elect a president without something close to 50% of the electorate? It is unlikely Biden’s rating is resurrected the next few months; therefore, the only way for Democrats to win is to diminish his opponents, mainly Trump: make Trump appear even less palatable than the unpopular Biden.
Like many recent elections, the vote in many states seems a foregone conclusion. At the moment, RealClearPolitics has only nine states (and one congressional district) as “Toss Ups”. These states and maybe a few others will likely decide the election. Trump is currently “ahead” in six of the toss-up states, Biden in two, and one (Wisconsin) is essentially tied.
However, there is ample time for results to shift (if the current reported results are even accurate). More states can move into the “Toss Up” column. Count on some shifting. Furthermore, events will be conjured up before November. Surprises are being held back for the Fall. They not may influence many, but a few votes in one direction might change everything. A combined 40,000 votes in three states decided the last presidential election. In 2000, 500 votes in Florida determined the presidential election. A 2020 Congressional race in Iowa was decided by six votes. Who knows which states this year will be decided by razor thin margins? Who knows which states which currently non-competitive states will become competitive? It could be your state.
After careful analysis of all the polls, I call it a dead heat. If you think this election matters: vote and ignore the polls. Nothing is settled. Don’t pick a winner before voting.
Biden Replacement
The talk of a Biden replacement continues. Talk show hosts love the topic and people want to speculate. It is an interesting topic; however, it seems clear the Democrats have chosen their candidate. Biden is the nominee unless he simply cannot continue due to health issues (a definite possibility). In any case, the only possible substitute is Kamala Harris. Democrats cannot throw their diversity hire over for a last-minute newcomer. Further, a change at this late date is very risky and who knows how such a change will be treated by voters, especially Independent voters?
Clearly, Biden’s health is worse than four years ago. I couldn’t believe he ran in his condition four years ago. Democrats are aware of his condition along with his unpopularity, but the problem has always been a replacement. Harris is the most likely replacement, but she is not popular either, so Democrats have kept her off the top of the ticket. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/white-house/34-percent-voters-believe-biden-make-end-second-term.
Just 34% of registered voters in the United States think President Joe Biden would make it to the end of a second term if reelected in 2024, according to a new poll — including 65% of Democrats.
Tens of millions will vote for Biden even if his health further deteriorates, even if he creates more insanity: some like (or at least tolerate) Harris and know she will be the actual nominee, some always vote Democrat, and some dislike Trump more than Biden. Personally, I can’t see how anyone votes for Biden at this point, but the approval poll shows 40% still willing to consider Biden (that’s a bad number, but it still represents tens of millions of people).
Trump Conviction
Has Trump’s felony conviction moved the polls? The numbers do not appear to have changed, but even if the process affected just a few votes, the numbers undetectable in the polls. Furthermore, the trial kept President Trump from campaigning around the country. He campaigned in New York evenings during the trial and he traveled further on weekends, but he would have been able to do far more campaigning without the restrictions. The restrictions were intended to harm his campaign, and I am sure they have.
President Trump was also under a gag order, unable to discuss his perspective during the trial, a trial solely intended to harm his campaign. His opponent was allowed to interfere in this trial (and the others), several of President Trump’s Constitutional rights were violated throughout, including a most basic right of being told what he is charged with, the judge, a dubious choice for Trump’s prospects, was hand selected outside the normal process, the New York court had no legitimate jurisdiction in the case, and every legal analyst on TV admits the case will be overturned on appeal, and yet President Trump was not allowed to speak at all? This seems like injustice to a large segment of us who plan on voting in the Fall.
This trial was not about an affair. It was not about buying silence with a non-disclosure agreement (NDA). These are both legal. It was also not about excessive campaign contributions by Trump himself because he is not limited in contributing to his own campaign. The trial was about a bookkeeping problem: how the NDA was recorded. This is the event that should determine the 2024 election? How absurd. Unfortunately, many folks do not take the time to understand the details of the case.
The whole sham harkens to Soviet era show trials the-great-new-york-show-trial. The full impact may never be known or the strategy may eventually backfire on Democrats, but the trial should never have happened. This was a travesty of justice.
Biden and Harris eagerly hailed the decision they see as a boost to their campaign. They relish using the term “Convicted Felon Donald Trump”. It gives them new hope. The campaign attempted to rebut Trump’s comments following the result, but couldn’t conjure up much more than “is not” for a rebuttal.
It is interesting to hear Biden talk of Trump’s age and to discount his own and ignore his family’s corruption.
By the way, the Hunter Biden laptop, the one that fifty former intelligence officers said was Russian disinformation was resurrected during Hunter Biden’s trial in June. It is far more real than a Russian dossier we heard so much of since 2016.
Sentencing and More Legal-fare
We learn on July 11 if President Trump will be sentenced to prison and taken permanently off the campaign trail. His fate rests mainly in the hands of one individual, Judge Juan Merchan. We can be sure Judge Merchan is influenced by political operatives ahead of this crucial decision.
So far, Democrats plan to taint Trump’s reputation and to give him a permanent scarlet letter have been remarkably successful. One-channel media says the justice system is working; they say Republicans are just sore losers (of course, they ignore their own outrage over decisions they disliked; they will never recover from the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade two years ago). These folks are either gullible, unintelligent, lying, or all of the above. They pretend the Democrat party and the White House played no part in Trump prosecutions (look at the visitor logs to the White House; look at the connections between prosecutors and the White House staff). This is election interference no matter how you slice it. The cheating has begun before the first vote is even counted.
President Biden needs this law-fare to bolster his campaign. He cannot run on his own record. Therefore, Trump will be given the sentence that causes maximum political damage. If Democrats believe they will be punished for overreaching, they will hold back a tad to avoid losing voters (and possibly to avoid further riling up a newly motivated Republican electorate). Whatever the punishment, they have not come this far to let Trump off the hook. They will use it to hamstring Trump’s campaign. They will also emphasize his conviction in commercials the next five months. Discerning voters will see it as a sham, but the conviction will likely dissuade many from voting for Trump.
Ben Shapiro and Megan Kelly, both lawyers themselves, discussed this on a recent Shapiro episode. Per Kelly:
I don’t think he [Merchan] is going to give him [Trump] jail time. It would be such an egregious deviation from what would normally be done in a case like this. . . a first time felon with no prior record and what are the aggravating circumstances?
The two also discuss the numerous violations of norms throughout, so why would the judge break form at this point?
He wasn’t afforded due process . . . There have been multiple constitutional violations here.
If you are a New York judge and you want to be famous for the rest of your life, be the guy who put Donald Trump in jail.
Yes, it is absurd. We found a jury that we pushed into this guilty verdict–we, the judge and the prosecutor . . . It is too big a violation of our norms.
I totally agree with you.
Two other trials have been delayed until after the election. The Democrat’s plan has run into a few snags. Jack Smith, special prosecutor, however, is still pushing to begin a Trump prosecution this year, but the Supreme Court’s decision on presidential immunity has delayed him. Each day he waits on the court decision, the less chance of reviving the case this year. If the decision is not a clear cut rejection of Trump’s claim and requires some action from Smith or the court, this trial will definitely be delayed beyond the election.
Democrats have done enough damage to Trump with the one case, one that should never have been brought.
Double Standard
Former Trump aides Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro have both been convicted in court for contempt of Congress. Navarro has been imprisoned and Bannon is awaiting sentencing. Former Obama Attorney General, Eric Holder. and current Biden Attorney General, Merrick Garland have also been held in contempt of Congress. What should we do about them? Holder has been out of office for years and was never charged. Garland’s own justice department says it won’t prosecute the boss for contempt charge brought earlier this month. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/merrick-garland-contempt-justice-department/. How about that?
A few years ago, former Trump campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, was charged for violating the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) https://time.com/5005142/paul-manafort-indictment-foreign-agents-registration-act-fara/ (Manafort’s charge was not related to his work on the Trump campaign itself). Due to connections with foreign government officials and businesses, Hunter Biden should have also registered as a representative of a foreign agent. He did not. Hunter Biden should be charged just as Paul Manafort was. President Biden, his father, should be charged as an accomplice.
Hunter took numerous trips with Joe during which he met with foreign clients (or prospective clients). Joe, VP at the time, knew Hunter was representing foreign businesses. Per the secret Service, we know Hunter traveled extensively during his father’s eight years as VP; specifically, he “took 411 separate domestic and international flights, including to 29 different foreign countries. He visited China five times.” (https://www.worldtribune.com/secret-service-records-show-hunter-biden-took-411-flights-visited-29-countries/).
I recently wrote of a conservative journalist who was arrested for simply reporting on the January 6 events, another travesty of justice. corruption-alert-journalist-arrested-for-Jan-6.
Representative Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) says the following of President Trump:
“I mean, it sounds nuts, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this guy threw me in jail,” she said. “He’s out of his mind. I mean, he did his whole first campaign around ‘lock her up.’ This is his motto.”
Ocasio-Cortez said she takes Trump “at his word.”
AOC worries she will be arrested? Has she looked around? During four years of Trump’s presidency, how many of his political opponents did he jail? During almost four years of Biden’s presidency, how many of his political opponents have been jailed? The contrast is stark.
What is the Election About?
Will the election be about January 6 and President Trump’s conviction in New York? That could be trouble for Trump, but let’s first ask Nancy Pelosi again about taking responsibility for January 6. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/nancy-pelosi-says-i-take-responsibility-for-not-having-national-guard-at-the-capitol-on-jan-6-in-video-shot-by-her-own-daughter/ar-BB1nYWK0
Last week, Representative Pelosi was asked to explain comments made several years back regarding January 6. In this unearthed video, she speaks privately with aides and assumes responsibility January 6 events. She never denied making these comments, but when confronted, she did, of course, shift the blame to Trump and Republicans. The last four years she had this on her conscience but never admitted anything publicly because a better political avenue opened up.
Benny Johnson did an excellent interview of Chairman Barry Loudermilk discussing this issue in detail. The narrative has been manipulated and we should want to know what actually happened: johnson-interviews-chairman-loudermilk
Will the 2024 campaign be a referendum on Biden? Trump needs to continually make comparisons between the last two administrations .
Eight young men from Tajikistan on the terrorist watch list were arrested within the interior of the US this week. Some had entered through ports of entry and have been here a while. In other words, they simply came across the border along with all the others who have entered the nation unchecked.
Border Patrol’s statistics show how many watch-listed terrorists entered under four years of Trump and how many entered under the three-and-a-half years under Biden. On average, three per year entered (and were detected) during the Trump years. Since Biden has entered office, it has been 100 per year, a 33-fold increase over the prior four years.
Inflation remains high as it has since 2021, and now unemployment is rising again (at 4% in May 2024). Does this mean Bidenomics is not so good?
We currently have wars in Ukraine and Israel. Biden cannot fully commit to either and cannot bring either to a close. He supports both sides in the war on Israel. He provides humanitarian aid for Hamas to give to its people, yet we all know Hamas takes all aid received for its fighters. Biden claims he supports our ally Israel but then hamstrings their efforts to end the war. He treats Hamas, the closest re-incarnation of the Nazi regime in the last eighty years, as a legitimate negotiating partner. Similarly, Biden seems content to let the Ukraine war continue without resolution, pretending the US can spend unspecified dollars for an unspecified amount of time.
“I think he has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades,” former Obama Defense Secretary Robert Gates says of Vice President Joe Biden
Meanwhile, Trump ended the ISIS threat in Iraq in 2017, started no new wars, and negotiated several Middle Eastern treaties during his years.
Perhaps the election should be a referendum about Biden not Trump.
In a recent press conference, Biden could not remember a Revolutionary War saying. He appears to mock the phrase: “The tree of liberty is watered with the blood of patriots.” He is appealing to those I spoke of last week, who have no sense of American exceptionalism. the-lost-generations
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