COVID – Is the End Near?

CDC directory Dr. Rochelle Walensky, while acknowledging we are close to end of the COVID pandemic, continues to preach doom and gloom. She says she is afraid and implies we should all be afraid as well. CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky warns of ‘impending doom’ (nypost.com)

Does she not realize the vaccine is ending this? We are smart enough to realize the pandemic is not completely over yet, but we are supposed to delay return to normality a little while longer because our CDC director is afraid? I expect more than an emotional plea from the CDC Director; she sounds more like Oprah than a medical expert. Give me some facts and data please; help us “follow the science”. What does she base recommendations on?

Last year, Walensky’s CDC predecessor, Dr. Robert Redfield, told us in his most serious and sincere tone that a mask is more effective against COVID than a vaccine (a vaccine had yet to be distributed at that point). https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Redfield+a+mask+is+better+than+a+vaccine&docid=607999672191774255&mid=60451D2ACFC75B525E9D60451D2ACFC75B525E9D&view=detail&FORM=VIRE. I was incredulous when he said it six months ago and now it just looks foolish as we see COVID diminishing and the vaccine bringing us ever closer to herd immunity.

They are doctors, but they don’t appear to be all that smart. They don’t seem to know much, or at least they don’t talk much, about medicine itself. By default, all of you reading this post are probably just as qualified to run the CDC as they are.

Earlier this week, Joe Biden called on states to re-instate mask mandates: Biden Calls for States to Reinstate Mask Mandates – NBC New York. Biden’s handlers just don’t know what else to tell him to say or do. They keep preaching the gospel of mask mandates and I think they will keep doing it until nobody will listen any more. They’ve been wrong before, but they keep doubling down on the same rhetoric. In my March 6 post, Adjusting to COVID – Seek the Truth (seek-the-truth.com), I pointed out Biden’s comment on this act:

Texas and Mississippi recently lifted mask mandates, joining the ranks of 13 other states which had no mask mandate. Joe Biden says their governors are Neanderthals (by the way, I thought Biden was the anti-Trump and avoided such incendiary rhetoric).

I also noted that Biden’s fellow comrade joined him in this condemnation (more incendiary rhetoric):

Just this week, we’ve heard former presidential candidate and skateboarder extraordinaire Beto O’Rourke say that the lack of a mask mandate is akin to killing people: https://www.mrctv.org/blog/beto-orourke-lambasts-gop-cult-death-withdrawing-mask-mandates-texas.

Well, it’s April now and it’s been four weeks since Texas and Mississippi lifted their mask mandates. How is that “no mask mandate” regime doing? How many have many have been sacrificed in Texas and Mississippi? Well, actually cases are down by half in both those states. Go figure.

Beto, Biden, Fauci, and the rest of the gang keep preaching mask mandates. Biden said four weeks ago that Texas and Mississippi governors were Neanderthals for ending mask mandates. Despite the fact that he got that one wrong one, he tells us again this week that these states are not taking the virus seriously. It’s got nothing to do with politics, he said. How about we just look at the record and see who was right and who was wrong? Did Texas and Mississippi just get lucky or did they know something before lifting mandates? Eventually, we will see a state where the “wear the mask” math adds up. But then, we’ve heard this same hyperbole from Biden and others throughout the last year. For example, we were told Georgia was practicing human sacrifice when they led the nation in opening up last year:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/why-georgia-reopening-coronavirus-pandemic/610882/

Were they right about Georgia? Today, New York, the state that Dr. Fauci said “got it right”, a Neanderthal-free state, per Biden, has had more cases and more deaths per capita than Georgia, the state that The Atlantic said was “experimenting in human sacrifice” by giving people back their freedom. Anyone care to issue a retraction? Dr. Fauci? Dr. Fauci?

Our politicians and media constantly make such predictions and then they hope that nobody ever examines the record. When their prior predictions don’t pan out, they make newer and ever more dire predictions. As long as we don’t look back and point out that they were wrong about earlier predictions, they will fool more people yet again. It’s the old shell game.

While cases have been falling in Texas and Mississippi, in New York, a state which declined to lift its mask mandate last month, cases have risen over that same period. Do you still think masks are more effective than the vaccine? Dr. Redfield? Dr. Redfield?

Do you even believe masks are effective against the virus? I’m talking about the ordinary, loose fitting, pull-it-out-of-your pocket, hasn’t-been-washed-in-a-week masks that are so common these days. You could make a case that they help a little bit, maybe just a tiny bit. The CDC did publish a study which showed some very marginal levels of effectiveness against the virus: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e3.htm?s_cid=mm7010e3_w#T1_down

Still, when it comes to the real world, there are plenty of counter examples, plenty of examples where mask mandates did nothing to slow the spread (just look at last October through mid-January when cases increased six-fold despite high mask usage), and there are plenty of examples where elimination of mask mandates didn’t lead to disaster. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/cdc-mask-restaurant-small-impact-covid?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

At this point, it appears doubling down on mask mandates is all the Biden administration has. They have to show you that they are doing something. They desperately want to convince you they are having an impact, that it’s their policy, not someone else’s that is the right one, that their policy turned the tide (certainly not the Orange man’s policy). Sorry, but the only game in town right now is the vaccine and its a game changer, a paradigm shifter, and although you’ve tried to take credit, you don’t get credit for the vaccine. Move aside mask mandate. Gehrig has replaced Pipp in the lineup (for you baseball aficionados) and Pipp will only be remembered as the guy who came before the Iron Man.

Stanford Dr. Scott Atlas, formerly a member of the White House COVID task force, had this to say about the mask mandates:

Regarding universal masks, 38 states have implemented mask mandates, most of them since at least the summer, with almost all the rest having mandates in their major cities. Widespread, general population mask usage has shown little empirical utility in terms of preventing cases, even though citing or describing evidence against their utility has been censored. Denmark also performed a randomized controlled study that showed that widespread mask usage had only minimal impact.

This is the reality: those who insist that universal mask usage has absolutely proven effective at controlling the spread of the COVID virus and is universally recommended according to “the science” are deliberately ignoring the evidence to the contrary. It is they who are propagating false and misleading information.

The complete article from Atlas: https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/science-politics-covid-will-truth-prevail/

The Biden administration has had one significant impact on COVID, not one they would want to be remembered for, but an impact nonetheless. Listen to this interview of Senator Ted Cruz who just recently visited the border. https://ktrh.iheart.com/featured/michael-berry/content/2021-03-30-sen-cruz-tells-the-czar-10-covid-positivity-rate-at-a-cbp-facility-in-tx/. Do they care about COVID at the border? Maybe the CDC director should be worried about spread of COVID from Mexico instead of pestering us to wear masks all day long? This one is a completely unforced error on our part, one of the most predictable and yet most avoidable crises in recent years (not to mention a humanitarian crisis which our media is disgracefully covering up).

Then there is also the great Dr Anthony Fauci, the man who claims he is not a politician while spouting all the COVID talking points. Dr. Fauci has damaged the reputation of science as much as James Comey damaged the reputation of justice in America. The Romanovs had Rasputin; Trump, and now, Biden had Fauci. Steve Deace, Blaze TV host, along with Todd Erzen, have recently published a book about the great doctor Faucian Bargain: The Most Powerful and Dangerous Bureaucrat in American History: Deace, Steve, Erzen, Todd: 9781637581117: Amazon.com: Books. They use the doctor’s own words and claims against him; don’t believe me, believe the doctor himself as he is quoted in this book.

Again, our public figures count on you not remembering what they said previously. But you need to remember what they said and hold them accountable. With regard to COVID, everything has been said in the last year. It’s not that long ago. Fauci and all the rest think you’ve forgotten as they move on to new claims. Let’s end their regime of lies now. Let’s ignore their ridiculous claims and move on with our lives.

Personal Example

I was very glad when our school finally decided to bring the kids back to school after Spring break. For the last 13 months, our kids have been 100% remote. It’s only two days a week, but still they are going back! Finally! But then, we learn of this policy:  

The current guidelines state if your student is exposed (being within 6 feet of someone diagnosed with Covid-19 for a cumulative total of 15 minutes or more, over a 24-hour period) they will quarantine for 14 days even if asymptomatic. This quarantine includes sports. This guidance is from CDC, our StrongSchoolsNC Public Health Toolkit (K-12) and our local health department.

This tells me that the school doesn’t even believe in the mask policy. Even with our kids wearing masks throughout the day, even with the kids being six feet apart, even with only half the kids in school, if they come in contact with another kid, they are required to quarantine for 14 days. If masks and the six-feet rule work, why quarantine after exposure? Why after 13 months at home, does our kid have to go back home for another two weeks? They can’t even participate in sports, so they would miss out on a good portion of the season. We have had a grand total of one child die from COVID in North Carolina, we’ve crushed the curve, and still my kid could be punished yet again?

So, if our kids are wearing masks all day, social distancing, and following the protocols, they can still be forced to quarantine if exposed to COVID during school. If masks and social distancing work, why is this additional policy necessary? I don’t want my kids to return to school only to be forced to stay at home for another two weeks because of this rule. We’ve had a grand total of one minor die in North Carolina. What are we protecting our kids from? Why do we continue to punish the kids in this way? Common sense appears to be officially dead.

In addition, our family has tried several times this last year to go on a vacation. The cruise we booked has been canceled and re-booked three times. At the same time, the casinos in Vegas have been open for months; Disney World is open again; the grocery stores, Lowe’s, and Wal-Mart never closed, but the government tells us they can’t figure out a way for us to safely cruise. So, the cruise lines are now cruising out of Europe and the Bahamas. Our CDC in its infinite wisdom won’t let them operate out of the U.S. So our government allows those other countries to earn the tourist revenue, revenue that would normally come to our country, negatively impacting thousands of U.S. jobs that support the cruise industry. Does that makes sense? When asked about this, we see that CDC Director Walensky is again short on facts. She claims that it is not her department, but doesn’t tell us whose it is (Walensky’s testimony to Alaska Senator Lisa Murkosi is around the 6:30 mark).

The Biden Administration wants the border open despite all the risk associated with it; if they wanted cruise lines to sail, they would make it happen. They cram through everything else they want. Maybe if Florida was a blue state they would look at this differently?

One More Example from Canada

This one from Don, the Canadian travel agent, was also interesting. Apparently, the politicians in Canada are no better than the American politicians and media:

The Numbers

Juxtapose the rhetoric of our public figures with the actual numbers, the hard evidence that the President, the CDC Director, Dr. Fauci, and others do not trust you to know.

First, deaths continue to decline and to decline rapidly. The death rate in the U.S. declined around 12% just in the last four days. The death rate is at its lowest since Halloween, down to 862 per day, a 74% drop from its peak in late January.

The outlook is very sunny for the two leading vaccinators, the UK and Israel. In the UK, deaths are down 97% to 42 per day; cases are down 94%. In Israel deaths are down 87% to just 8 per day; cases are down 96% and at the lowest levels since the start of the pandemic. As vaccinations continue to roll out, it will be wonderful to see the U.S. rates fall as well in the coming month. I wonder just how low can these numbers go?

The U.S. vaccination rate is up to 3 million per day. It will not take much longer for us to reach the 75% threshold. Per Bloomberg: In the U.S., more Americans have received at least one dose than have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 158 million doses have been given. In the last week, an average of 2.99 million doses per day were administered.

Cases in the U.S. have been rising recently, but they are not yet out-of-control as they were in the last wave which began in late September. This is because while cases are up in many states, cases are also down in many other states. Furthermore, despite the rise in cases the last three weeks, the death rate has not been impacted. In the short term, the numbers could still go South, but long term I have no doubt the numbers will fall (unless, of course, we’ve been sold a bill of goods with these vaccines).

What’s Driving the Recent Increase inCases?

I wanted to understand more about this increase in cases, so I looked at the change in cases in the last four weeks when this latest runup began. I found that cases are declining or rising slower in the 16 states which currently have no mask mandates. The 34 states which have mask mandates have not done as well. How can this be after all we’ve heard about masks and all we’ve been told that masks are the key to solving the pandemic?

This is conjecture, but I believe the mitigations from the more restrictive states have actually been counter productive in the long run. The virus has been suppressed by the lockdown measures, but only for a time. The states which have tried so hard to hold the lid on the virus eventually see the pot boil over. As Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford said a year ago, the lockdown measures only serve to “widen the curve”, to lengthen the duration of the pain. So, Michigan with its 300% increase in cases the last four weeks is still feeling some of the pain while the situation improves in mask-less Texas, Mississippi, Georgia, Arizona, Florida, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Montana, and Tennessee.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/states-dropped-mask-mandates/story?id=76249857

Mask-less states are highlighted in the chart below. The median change for the “no mask mandate” states is a 1% increase. The median change for the “mask mandate” states is a 31% increase. Yet, Joe Biden wants you to “mask up” because it is patriotic and it makes a difference. What kind of difference is it making? Is he “following the science”?

Also, note there are only two “no mask mandate” states in the top 20 in the list below. North Dakota, fourth on this chart, has not reported a death in 8 days; in addition, cases had fallen 95% earlier this year and a slight uptick is not alarming. Alaska, sixteenth, has reported one death since March 10.

Should the elimination of mask mandates really be a concern? Should it be our primary focus? Does Congress need to spend more trillions to “get us back to normal”? Or maybe we can just open up fully now, end the hyperbole, and go back to telling the truth and following the actual science.

StateCases Peak DateAvg Cases PeakAvg Cases Now%chg since latest peak% change since 3/5
Michigan21-Nov76045877-22.7301.2
Minnesota20-Nov70521729-75.5133.3
Hawaii29-Aug255105-58.8105.9
North Dakota – NMM18-Nov1409154-89.190.1
Maryland12-Jan32881292-60.772.7
New Hampshire13-Dec883377-57.372.1
West Virginia7-Jan1524414-72.867.6
Illinois16-Nov123842636-78.767.3
Connecticut8-Dec27861249-55.262.4
Pennsylvania16-Dec106563977-62.755.6
Vermont2-Apr187187052
Maine15-Jan625250-60.051.5
Massachusetts12-Jan64762257-65.242.6
Washington13-Dec3360988-70.639
Oregon5-Dec1534388-74.735.2
Alaska – NMM8-Dec704172-75.634.4
New Jersey11-Jan61434496-26.833.7
Indiana8-Dec6898974-85.930.7
Delaware12-Dec826324-60.827.6
Rhode Island8-Dec1330410-69.223.1
South Dakota – NMM14-Nov1458195-86.621.9
Missouri – NMM19-Nov5099575-88.718.1
District Of Columbia12-Jan322140-56.516.7
Iowa – NMM16-Nov4627569-87.713.8
Nebraska – NMM19-Nov2390319-86.713.1
Wisconsin18-Nov6563531-91.911.1
New York12-Jan164638316-49.510.6
Ohio13-Dec107351829-83.08
Colorado19-Nov50291289-74.46.7
Idaho – NMM10-Dec1654282-83.02.9
Florida – NMM12-Jan159855405-66.2-0.4
Virginia18-Jan61661469-76.2-1.3
Wyoming23-Nov89158-93.5-1.7
North Carolina12-Jan86541827-78.9-10.2
Tennessee – NMM18-Dec96271061-89.0-11.4
Montana – NMM20-Nov1293125-90.3-16.1
New Mexico23-Nov2671205-92.3-17
Nevada9-Dec2763263-90.5-24.2
Utah23-Nov3377406-88.0-25
South Carolina – NMM19-Jan49941051-79.0-26.1
Kentucky12-Jan3984638-84.0-30.4
Kansas17-Nov2849150-94.7-35.6
California21-Dec447822658-94.1-40.1
Louisiana12-Jan3756377-90.0-40.7
Alabama23-Dec4132384-90.7-45.5
Texas – NMM15-Jan230273263-85.8-47.9
Arizona – NMM11-Jan9804653-93.3-48.4
Georgia – NMM13-Jan97781362-86.1-49
Oklahoma – NMM12-Jan4173311-92.6-52
Mississippi – NMM9-Jan2370213-91.0-53.5
Arkansas10-Jan3086151-95.1-61.7

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