COVID is Still Trending Down

This is a quick update on COVID. The United States, along with the rest of the world, is now seeing a significant decline in COVID numbers. The political situation also continues to change rapidly, so while this post is a bit shorter than normal, I want to share recent updates and leave time for a post on another topic this weekend. While many political leaders realize the unpopularity of COVID restrictions, others keep following the same path as the last two years for reasons I really just cannot see.

The Case Numbers

Omicron is still the dominant variant. We may be subject to additional variants that start the COVID train rolling again, or we may not. We do know pandemics do not last forever. The first SARS virus burned itself out in the first year. This one has clearly taken longer, but may be burning itself out.

The U.S. has recorded 30 million COVID cases, 38% all recorded infections, in just the last two-and-a-half months–and that number is surely much lower than the actual number of cases. Last year, the CDC estimated that nearly two of three COVID cases are not reported to them, so we have possibly thirty percent or more of the U.S. population that was infected with Omicron and has a bulletproof level of immunity at the moment.

Other estimates have posited the number of unreported cases is at least one in two and possibly as many as eleven in twelve per an MIT study. If we go with the more conservative CDC estimate, it means that possibly three-fourths of all Americans have been infected with COVID. Of course, this includes different strains and varying levels of protection. For example, contracting Delta does not protect one against Omicron, but Omicron does protect against Delta. More people have had Omicron than any other strain and there may also still be some levels of protection against death and hospitalization among the various other strains, so on balance, this is very good news–at least in this moment.

Because of the limited durability of vaccine immunity, herd immunity was never coming along that route. We certainly put a lot of hope in the vaccines, but their protection has been quite a bit more limited than hoped for. However, with such a large percentage now with natural immunity, immunity that can last a lifetime, herd immunity is a definite possibility.

This natural immunity is not a slam dunk, get-out-of-jail-free card for the populace as a whole by any means. We could have other variants that would infect those with current natural immunity or, instead, we could have enough people now with immunity that COVID burns itself out or COVID could continue to exist in the background, like the flu, with various flareups from time to time.

What is clear is that the decline in cases is remarkable. We can see graphically how herd immunity works. Numbers reached the highest levels ever in mid-January, far higher than ever before; these levels of spread were so great, they could not be sustained and the numbers have cratered quickly. They are not likely to fall to zero, but we certainly hope they will stay at lower levels and the variants remain less deadly.

The decline in cases has been 40% or better each of the last three weeks. In the last five weeks, U.S. COVID cases have declined from an average of 821K per day on January 13 down to 108K on February 18, an 87% drop in just five weeks. We are not yet back to pre-Omicron case levels, but I expect we will follow the pattern in other countries and go lower still, especially as we head into longer days and the warmer Spring weather.

Deaths From COVID

Joe Biden made a couple of rash pronouncements regarding COVID in 2020: every COVID death was the responsibility of Donald Trump (and, of course, if you hate Trump, as so many do, this may have made perfect sense at the time) and secondly, he promised he was going to shut down COVID. Well, here is a quick and dirty analysis of those claims:

  • From March 20, 2020 to January 19, 2021, 10 months total, under the Trump Administration: 431,000 U.S. Deaths, an average slightly more than 43,000 per month.
  • From January 20, 2021 to February 19, 2022, 13 months total, under the Biden Administration: 529,000 U.S. deaths, an average of just under 41,000 per month.

Despite the vaccines (not available until the last month of the Trump administration), the additional knowledge of COVID (which was lacking initially under Trump and has grown over time), the change in the levels of natural immunity (which is now as high as it has ever been), we have only done slightly better under Biden, about a 5.5% reduction in deaths during the first 13 months of his administration. Certainly, that is enough time to make a judgment about his claims. In 2020, he blamed every single COVID death on Trump. Now that he is president, he blames you, the unvaccinated and the unmasked. Draw your own conclusions.

In any case, these numbers make COVID the third leading cause of death for the last two years (behind heart disease and cancer). My prediction is that we will see much better results over the next year. How much better I cannot tell. It is clear to see that deaths are now falling significantly and given the decline in cases will continue to fall rapidly the next several weeks.


The case for vaccine mandates is certainly dying, although some folks just won’t brook that argument. I have said for a long time, vaccines are the right thing for some but not for others. Many people are still pushing them for my kids and your kids. Why? We asked our pediatrician, who is clearly not an anti-vax person, what he thinks about our kids and their lack of vaccination.

With Omicron being the dominant force now infecting most everybody in rapid sequence, myself included, the need to vaccinate after having natural infection makes little sense unless a child or person is in a high risk category. Each person must decide on the personal place they find themselves. Our practices stance all along has been that each person must weigh and measure risk over benefit. 

My wife and I have had our vaccines, but we will wait on boosters. Dr. Fauci, on the other hand, is pushing a fourth mRNA shot (or third J&J shot). I don’t know as much about medicine as Dr. Fauci, but I do not need to know as much to know he is not sharing the whole story and that he is not saying this because he truly believes it is the best course of action for everyone. What exactly is his game? Why has he been so patently obtuse and dishonest? Our pediatrician who has also pushed vaccines at times, is clearly far more rational and is willing to adjust to new facts and individual circumstances.

Below is another basic fact we should be hearing from Dr. Fauci. I shared this a few months ago with Dr. Campbell’s interview of the Danish doctor who discovered the difference caused by the simple asperation procedure. Now Germany has joined Denmark in changing their method of vaccination, an apparently simple change, which, per the research, could certainly benefit a great number of people. Why does Dr. Fauci share some information but ignore other relevant facts such as this?

Dr. Campbell, who does not have quite the platform or name recognition as the greatest of all doctors, Dr. Fauci, says we all need to forward this to our politicians.

Dr. Campbell, forward to all politicians:

Dr. Campbell on pericarditis:

Herd Immunity

Here is another quick and dirty analysis from which you can draw your own conclusions.

  • For the first eighteen months of the pandemic, from March 20, 2020 to September 19, 2021: 43.3 million U.S. cases, 2.4 million cases/month.
  • The last five months, from September 20, 2021 to February 19, 2021: 37 million U.S. cases, 7.4 million cases per month.

The rate of infection is roughly three times higher since the start of last Fall. Almost half, approximately 46%, of all U.S. COVID cases, have occurred in the last five months. Clearly, we are much better protected by natural immunity now, perhaps it is enough get us out of this or perhaps it is not, but it is clearly a highly significant change. Omicron did a better job of getting us to where we have tried to be with vaccine immunity.

Dr. Campbell reported in a recent video that folks were infected with the first SARS-COV virus, still had immunity and were not infected this time. That’s a remarkable testament, but one that those who are in favor of vaccinations (e.g. Dr. Fauci yet again) don’t want to tell us. Here is more on natural immunity from Dr. Campbell:

Infection generates natural immunity:

Dr. Pilz interview:

There is another variant that is now spreading, the Omicron BA-2 variant. Omicron BA-1 is the variant we have been dealing with the last few months. It is likely that anyone impacted by BA-1 will also have immunity from BA-2. With the Northern hemisphere moving into Spring soon, I think we should we see a nice respite for a while, maybe for some time to come.

Canada and Truckers

Doug Ford, the governor of Ontario, who appears to be a neighbor of Canadian PM Trudeau is telling it like it is. Ford is the leader of the Progressive Conservative party. I really have no idea about Canadian politics or what this party represents, but, at this moment in time, I can say Ford speaks with great candor and sincerity. Please listen to this short clip:


“We also know that it doesn’t matter if you have one shot or 10 shots, you can catch COVID. See the prime minister; he has triple shots, and I know hundreds of people with three shots that caught COVID. We just have to be careful.”

Ford added, “We can’t stay in this position forever.”

“We’ve got to learn to live with this and get on with our lives. I bet if I asked every single person in this room, ‘Do you want these damn masks on or do you want them off?’ They want them off. They want to get back to normal. They want to be able to go for dinner with their families, ” he said.

“Ontario will also lift proof of vaccination requirements for all settings at this time. Businesses and other settings may choose to continue to require proof of vaccination,” the government said.

On the other hand, Canadian PM Trudeau is acting like a tyrant as he attempts to punish his political opponents. All truckers, according to Trudeau are waving swastikas and confederate flags, only we have not seen such behavior. Trudeau’s Finance Minister also is encouraging banks to seize bank funds not of the truckers but of anyone who supports them financially. There have even been repercussions even against American citizens who have supported the truckers through crowd funding apps like GoFundMe. This is what tyranny looks like. Speak out against it now while it is allowed.

I can understand that governments may need to take steps to clear roads and traffic jams caused by protests, but freezing bank accounts because you do not like what is being protested? Going after folks who simply fund the protestors? What is going on here? These actions are well beyond the pale and must be opposed. At least, the towing companies and regular Canadians are supporting the truckers; many of these companies are not following orders from the tyrant Trudeau.

We can hope that the government in Canada will lose support and new elections will force the current PM out. Like I asked in a recent post: who will be the last off the crazy train? The Canadian PM, Dr. Fauci, the New Zealand PM?  I think the Biden admin is ready to get off the train soon.  We’ll see what happens next Tuesday when he gives the State of the Union.  I think he will take the off ramp then.


School Board:

Last Monday, I attended our school board meeting and spoke out against mask mandates, along with several other parents. The school did, in fact, drop the mask mandate beginning this coming Monday. Praise God! However, they still are urging that kids be vaccinated without any qualifiers. I even received a personal note complaining about my kids not being vaccinated despite the note from our pediatrician and their recent illness. A recent CDC study has shown that natural immunity (without vaccination) is better than vaccine immunity, so what exactly is the point?

The school also still has a quarantine policy which says nothing of vaccine immunity. The policy of ignoring natural immunity adopted by the CDC, Dr. Fauci, and many of our politicians pushing vaccines has trickled down to all levels. I have asked the school about this policy and why they continue to ignore natural immunity. I will share this response when I hear back from them.

More stories

In this podcast, we hear that the FDA wants to stop MDs from using certain medicines like Ivermectin. Why? Why do they even intervene in such situations and why intervene when it is a drug like Ivermectin that has been widely prescribed and well accepted for years.

The American federal government is apparently tracking those who entered religious exemptions. Really? Do you think the craziness from Canada and other places will not continue to spread to the U.S.

Liberty Counsel Action uncovered at least 57 rule changes in 55 federal departments and agencies that have launched a new, permanent government database to track religious employees and applicants who request any exemptions. In some agencies, the religious exemption requests are not limited to the COVID shots. The list is tracking any request for religious exemptions.

For the past few months, Scotland has been publishing age-stratified case rates by vaccination status in a very well broken-down chart every Wednesday afternoon, similar to the way the U.K. published the data every Thursday. The common thread observed from these trends was that the unvaccinated had the lowest case rate, the double-vaccinated had even higher death and hospitalization rates, and the triple-jabbed gradually had increasingly higher case rates, which clearly doesn’t portend good news even for hospitalization and death in the long run. When people like me started using their data, we were lambasted by the “fact-checkers” paid for by Big Pharma. Now Scottish health officials announced they will not be publishing the data at all

All I can say is: why is this? Why do we suppress information? Because it is information that does not fit our narrative?


As other countries are already recommending against vaccinating those under 12, our government will likely approve this shot for babies and young children based on a failed trial. There was never any efficacy in the shot because no child in the trial got seriously ill to begin with. So, they chose a trial endpoint around levels of antibody titers. Putting aside for a moment the premise that higher antibody titers (as opposed to T cells) are necessarily a good thing and won’t cause original antigenic sin, their own trial failed to achieve these endpoints in 2- to 4-year-olds. Which is why Pfizer announced in December that it was beginning a trial on a three-dose regimen. So how can they seek authorization of the failed two-dose trial for what is essentially a new virus?

Dr. Fauci? Dr Wallensky? Can you hear us? Why are you silent on so many of these issues? Please let us hear you. Or do you want to whine about Senators Paul and Johnson picking on you yet again?

At least, the truckers in Canada are inspiring others as we see the truck convoy come to the U.S. as well:


A group of US trucker convoys — inspired by the weeks-long demonstrations north of the border — are joining protests against COVID-19 restrictions and mandates in several cities.

The Great American Patriot Project started the American Truckers Freedom Fund on Wednesday and urged truck drivers to join three convoys to Washington, DC, next month.

You want to do something? Support these folks who are willing to take a stand. Speak out when they are not treated fairly. Freedom isn’t free. Fight for it. Don’t give up on it. We have won many battles recently thanks to folks speaking out. Keep doing it.

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