The nation appears headed for a rematch I hoped we could avoid. Biden is already half dead and has projected feebleness on behalf of America the last three years. Trump did better during his four years, but Trump is not the person he was in 2016, has accumulated far too many enemies, has alienated far too many voters (just ask your neighbors), is too old for the job, and says the wrong things far too often. We have better choices than either of these two.
We are continually told beforehand who is going to win, but do not forget this: not one person has voted yet (as of 12/31/23). The first votes are not until mid-January in Iowa. Do not be influenced by those who would discourage you from voting. Make your vote count.
Look at the Polls!
The polls, of course, are the main source for predictions; however, even if accurate, they are simply a snapshot in time. Elections are dynamic; public opinion often changes with a single defining event or unexpected result.
In 2020, nobody expected President Biden to win the nomination after losing both Iowa and New Hampshire; yet, won going away, more miraculous than Tom Brady throwing three touchdown passes in the fourth quarter and winning on the last play. The 2020 Biden nomination shows we don’t actually know the result until the game is played. Therefore, please discount the polls, tune out the experts telling you what will happen, and cast your vote forthrightly.
I make no significant predictions in this post. I highlight possibilities still available–and warn of being too certain too soon. Be wary of polls especially; polls can be considered, but they should never be our north star. A Washington Post poll in late October 2020 had Biden winning Wisconsin by seventeen percent (other polls also had him winning by double digits). The actual result a week later was Biden by less than one per-cent.
Such polls can become actual factors in the end result. Did potential Trump voters stay home in Wisconsin because they believed their vote futile? Even if your favorite pollster nailed the result last time, it may have just been by chance. A broken clock is right twice a day.
Furthermore, ask yourself: how can supposedly legitimate polls be so skewed? It appears, the Washington Post was not deterred from future polling because of their wildly inaccurate. They will blame some unexpected event and always avoid introspection, perhaps pretend nothing unusual occurred. Perhaps the poll was a deliberate misdirection manipulated to achieve a desired result, so they don’t care what you think. Don’t discount such dishonest tactics; so many today are committed to winning at any cost.
However, the political bias of the polls hardly matters because polls are not mathematically sound to begin with. The political bias, if it exists, simply further skews already inaccurate results.
Statistics is based on random samples, and random voter samples can hardly be found because an overwhelming percentage of us are unwilling to participate. You are probably not polled because you refused to participate too many times in the past or you don’t answer numbers you don’t recognize. Because they can’t find enough participants, pollsters must re-poll the same voters. Yet, this violates the mathematics which requires every potential voter has an equal chance of being selected. There is no mathematically rigorous method of selecting participants today, and the only legitimate conclusion is that election polls are untrustworthy.
The problem actually boils down to the margin of error: it is indeterminate. When the same race is measured in multiple polls and disparate results reported, at least one of the polls exceeds the margin of error (if not all of them).
Still, polls are conducted because people demand results and results are always obtained (even if invalid). If a pollster, you plough on despite the pesky mathematical pre-requisites which can easily be ignored; most people don’t know the math in any case. The game is all about the polls in any case, right? Pundits need something to analyze. I will also grant that polls have some marginal value. The actual margin of error cannot possibly exceed Trump’s and Biden’s current leads. Because time is short, the margins are so great, and Trump and Biden lead significantly in every poll, we can confidently say a Trump/Biden rematch is likely. The polls simply cannot be that far off.
So, Where does that Leave Us?
So, we know Trump and Biden are clearly ahead, but can’t determine the extent of their current leads, nor can we determine what will happen on election day, especially in caucus states like Iowa where a much smaller percentage of the electorate actually participates. Polls measure the public’s preferences, but they don’t even attempt to measure commitment.
DeSantis put all his eggs in the Iowa basket and has devoted more time and resources to Iowa than any other candidate. Trump supporters are extremely loyal, but he hasn’t courted Iowa voters to the extent DeSantis has. DeSantis can pull an upset in two weeks if his voters are the most committed. I don’t make this prediction. In addition, an Iowa win may not be enough to derail Trump in any case. Still, Iowa boils down to an unknown: which candidate has more supporters willing to caucus on a cold winter evening? Polls cannot predict.
The polls also say Nikki Haley is surging in New Hampshire. Who knows if she will pull out an upset. Still, even if Trump loses both Iowa and New Hampshire to his two challengers, he can still win because of the fractured opposition.
Throughout 2023, Republicans have had too many candidates on stage. Trump might be vulnerable one-on-one, but cannot be defeated with multiple challengers. The large field has also not made for good debate either. There were no media moderators at the famous Lincoln-Douglas debates of 1858. The two candidates engaged each other directly and had far more than ten minutes to speak. The next two Republican debates in January may be limited to two candidates. That alone will make them more meaningful.
Biden dominates the Democrat race because the party wants him to dominate. So far, Democrat challengers have had zero minutes on a national debate stage. RFK Jr., a well-known name and a potential threat to Biden, was given the cold shoulder by the party, so he is now running as an independent. The party didn’t want what might have been an interesting debate in 2023. The first Democrat presidential debate will happen far too late to matter: in New Hampshire (the Democrats start in New Hampshire this year having pushed Iowa to later) two weeks before the first vote–without Biden, of course (and without RFK Jr.). How many will support a Biden alternative whose names are not well-known? The party never provided them a legitimate opportunity to become known.
I remember 1992 when challenger Pat Buchanan was allowed to go head-to-head on a debate state with then President George Bush, Sr. Times are certainly different today.
The Indictment Factor
Trump’s poll lead has actually grown since mid-2023 when DeSantis entered the race. DeSantis made a big initial splash in the polls, but his initial momentum has never been sustained. DeSantis hasn’t been a threat to Trump, so Trump can avoid the debates, avoid making a big mistake, and avoid being confronted by his opponents.
It is possible the Trump indictments (91 in four different court cases), have enhanced his standing within the Republican Party. The Trump indictments started piling up concurrent to DeSantis entering the race. Is that a coincidence or have they become a reason for Republicans to rally around Trump and eschew DeSantis? Republicans see the indictments as a witch-hunt, and believe it is vital Trump fight off this political persecution. Too many imagine justice will triumph and the Democrat Party will be embarrassed for its unethical tactics. That would be nice, but Republicans need to realize the Democrats are committed to destroying Trump any way they can; they do not follow the same moral standards and they do not believe in Marquis of Queensbury rules. The courts have also become far too political today. Democrats have stacked the deck against Trump because they cannot tolerate another day of his presidency. Democrats don’t need to run the table; they just need one conviction. Given the significant progress thus far and trial venues in places where Trump won about 10% of the vote, multiple convictions seem likely.
Still, Trump’s sizeable loyal base won’t leave him no matter what. Many like me prefer another Republican, but would not vote for Biden over Trump. However, a sizeable portion of the electorate will seriously consider both candidates, and a Trump conviction will influence enough independent voters to make a difference. Trump is a massive gamble for the Republican Party.
The timing of potential convictions is interesting as well. Trump’s legal strategy is to delay. Democrat strategy is to keep him in the courtroom and off the campaign trail next summer. It is not clear yet who will prevail. Again, this is all a big gamble for Republicans.
The liberal media has largely ignored Trump in 2023. Limiting his exposure has enhanced his poll numbers in a head-to-head race with Biden, but the negative press coverage will be wall-to-wall as 2024 drags on. Democrats are desperate to drag Biden across the finish line. The one-channel media will highlight every new revelation of Trump wrong-doing (whether real or not). A conviction will be a bombshell repeated on loop, no matter the details or the legitimacy. A conviction will also renew efforts to keep Trump off the ballot (so far, this strategy has not paid off, but it might in the long run). The happy poll numbers Trump supporters cite now, could vanish instantly.
Republican voters should ask themselves: how will a Trump conviction influence the race? Too many Republicans talk only of the injustice of the indictments (true enough), but fail to consider how his legal woes will influence general election voters and hamper his chance in November. He may even be severely limited from campaigning due to his required presence in court proceedings.
The Republican primary will proceed without knowing Trump’s ultimate legal fate. His first trial isn’t scheduled to begin until March. The legal calendar has been manipulated so trials begin after the Republican primary but before the general election. This make it favorable for a Trump nomination, but unfavorable for Trump during the general election. General election voters will not look at a Trump conviction as his most steadfast supporters will. Accept that reality, please.
I understand the desire to thwart Democrat attempts to influence the Republicans’ choice, but the legal proceedings, as illegitimate as they are, are moving forward and may throw the Republican convention and the subsequent campaign into absolute turmoil. Trump could be not only convicted but sentenced before the November election. Will he get special treatment and allowed to remain free pending appeal? It could depend on a single judge. Trump’s delay strategy seems a crap shoot at best. As a Republican voter, I don’t want that risk.
Other Factors
A few other factors should also be considered. First, it appears the Republican establishment has rallied behind Nikki Haley. The establishment never liked Trump; he is too disruptive to their cozy arrangements. DeSantis is too conservative for their liking, and he appears to be Elliot Ness trying to bust up the mob. Haley is the only remaining candidate with a chance to win per the establishment. She enhanced her position during prior debates; she is indeed an adept politician and has gradually moved to the center of the debate stage. She will be a factor in the first few primaries; however, support of the Republican establishment will not get her nominated. The establishment is not well liked by the bulk of Republican voters. In fact, this dislike is why Trump was elected in 2016.
Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, Wall Street Journal editors, and their cronies are far less conservative than the Republican base. The base wants the swamp cleared; the establishment won’t do it, and Haley is not a sheriff who will take names. She hitched her star to the wrong wagon. Trump voters, were he to exit, would move to DeSantis rather than Haley because his positions are more closely aligned to Trump’s. Further, DeSantis voters are unlikely to move to Haley in bulk; a DeSantis exit guarantees a Trump nomination.
DeSantis is still the biggest threat to changing the dynamic of the race, the biggest threat to Biden (who desperately wants to run against a legally hobbled Trump), and the biggest threat to Trump’s nomination.
More than $28.1 million was spent from independent expenditures negatively attacking DeSantis, while more than $20.6 million was spent attacking Biden, $18.8 million spent attacking Trump, and $6.3 million was spent attacking Haley, according to data compiled by Rob Pyers, research director at California Target Book.
Haley didn’t factor into this analysis. She is likely jockeying for VP or another office.
On the other side, Democrats have few alternatives to Biden. They must realize his policies have been more radical than he promised in 2020. They definitely realize he is unpopular; they know he is old and feeble; they want someone better, but who will replace him?
VP Harris is even more unpopular than President Biden; otherwise, she would be the natural alternative. RFK Jr. is too much of a free thinker; the party fears he won’t toe the party line and cannot be controlled. The party thinks Bernie Sanders comes across as too radical; he was frozen out the last two elections. Governor Newsome was destroyed in a one-on-one debate with Governor DeSantis in November; he couldn’t counter dozens of basic measurements showing California is not doing as well as Florida. Former New York Governor Cuomo was forced out of office last year. Where do Democrats turn?
Pundits like to mention Michelle Obama and Oprah Winfrey, but they are not likely to parachute in with only ten months remaining. They are not organized for a campaign and probably don’t want the job in any case. Former President Obama already has major influence in a Biden White House without the negative press usually accompanying such influence. LBJ exited the 1968 race seven months prior to the November election, but that turned out poorly for Democrats; it would be very chaotic if it happens again in 2024.
Unless he has a health issue in 2024, Biden is running again. This is hard to believe, but is a safe prediction.
What is Different in 2024?
There are several third party candidates already announced, the most prominent being Robert Kennedy Jr. , son of a former presidential candidate. Most third party candidates never reach five percent of the vote and never get any electoral votes. Still, candidates like Ralph Nader have been blamed for siphoning off enough votes to alter the election results. Al Gore blamed Nader for his loss in Florida (he lost by about 500 votes) which left him two electoral votes shy.
Ross Perot is the last third party candidate who had an actual chance to win. Despite twenty million votes, he too ended with zero electoral votes. Given the unpopularity of both Trump and Biden and the dissatisfaction with both political parties, RFK Jr. could make a similar or even bigger splash this year. In 2024, anything is possible.
Cornel West (Independent) and Jill Stein (Green Party) have also announced. Chris Christie may seek yet another fifteen more minutes of fame. Joe Mansion could jump in, another of the “great moderates in history” Rush Limbaugh told us about. There is still room at the inn.
A Biden impeachment is another possibility in 2024. If Democrats can concoct 91 charges against Trump, the overwhelming majority bogus, Republicans should have no problem finding legitimate charges against Biden (dereliction of duty on the border, forgiveness of student loans in violation of a Supreme Court ruling, enrichment of himself and his family via political office, abuse of power: protecting his son while VP, failure to protect American troops and citizens during a withdrawal in Afghanistan, and so on).
We have never had a presidential candidate under criminal indictment or an impeachment during an election campaign (Hillary Clinton was never charged). We could have both in 2024.
WASHINGTON — The GOP-controlled House on Wednesday voted to authorize its impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden — a formal step Republicans believe will grant them the ability to better enforce their subpoenas in the courts.
The 221-212 vote was along party lines, with all Republicans voting yes and all Democrats voting no.
I found the Trump impeachments to be shams, but I see justice in impeaching Biden. He is far more corrupt than any past president. I hope for a dozen articles of impeachment, so the American people can see even more clearly the travesty his administration has been and the corrupt individual Biden truly is.
However, an impeachment should not be payback for Trump’s impeachment. There should be limits on political prosecutions. How much longer can the nation continue with impeachments and prosecutions of every president in office? This is mutual assured destruction if they don’t end.
I prefer Governor DeSantis to President Trump, but I find myself often defending Trump because of the injustice of his prosecutions and impeachments. Nobody in America has been treated as unjustly the past eight years. He has certainly added to his problems through ill chosen words and actions, but those words and actions do not justify the vilification and the lies spread about him.
What Will Happen Next?
I don’t know how this soap opera ends, but the current situation is very bad. People in both parties adamantly oppose each of these two candidates. It will be a monumental disaster for one side if either of them wins. More injustice and suspect tactics which directly impact the presidential election could even lead to civil unrest. Nobody should want that.
We could nominate candidates other than Trump and Biden and possibly avoid the worst trouble. We must each consider all factors, make our best choices, and hope for the best for the country.
For as long as public polling on the 2024 presidential race has been available, it’s been clear that most Americans don’t want Trump vs. Biden II.
This week, though, the pure cavalcade of bad news and missteps from both candidates is reminding them why, underscoring the manifest weaknesses and limitations of the two likely presidential nominees and puncturing the idea that either is on any sort of glide path to victory.
I saw an Iowa poll using AI technology to predict the result in Iowa next Monday. I don’t know enough about AI polling to comment on the legitimacy of it. I do know that the AI pollster understands the problem with traditional polling: their inability to create a random sample. The traditional polls ignore the math, so the margin of error cannot be determined. You can also throw in unethical players who want to skew the poll results to obtain a preferred outcome on election day.
The AI poll result shows the Iowa race much closer than the traditional polls. This is a stark contrast to all the traditional polls. Let’s see which is the best predictor. Another Iowa AI poll is to be released on Sunday, January 14.
Ron DeSantis has the endorsement of the governor (a very popular governor) and other key players in the state. DeSantis has done well in debates and he destroyed Gavin Newsome in a one-on-one in November, he has spent more money in Iowa than the others, has knocked on more doors in Iowa than any other candidate–in this or prior cycles. My intuition is he is doing better than demonstrated by the polls to this point. The AI poll has Iowa as a tight race.
As I said in my two election posts to this point, DeSantis is the only one with a chance to beat Trump for the nomination. There has been talk of Haley but she has become the establishment candidate and the establishment candidate will not win in the Republican primary. One-on-one against Trump she will lose badly. One-on-one Trump vs. DeSantis is the most interesting race the Republicans could have. Trump is clearly the favorite, but DeSantis still has a chance. Let’s see what happens next Monday.
Update January 11:
Just four days now until the Iowa primary. I am still not making predictions, but it seems to me the results being reported don’t match the other news I am hearing of during the campaign. Ron DeSantis has the endorsement of the Iowa governor (a very popular governor who won big in a 2022 re-election campaign) and other key officials in the state.
DeSantis has also done very well in Republican primary debates, including last night’s against Governor Haley, and he destroyed Gavin Newsome in a one-on-one debate in November. He has focused his presidential campaign on Iowa, far more than the other candidates. Steve Deace in the episode below mentions that DeSantis knocked on more doors in Iowa than any other candidate–in this or prior cycles. Bob Vander Plats, an influential Republican activist in Iowa backed DeSantis in November (https://apnews.com/article/bob-vander-plaats-iowa-evangelicals-desantis-endorsement-9750f48e3539b0294ab5f553f571e0b2 Both Deace and Vander Plats say DeSantis is the best organized candidate they have seen in an Iowa primary.
Furthermore, DeSantis is well like among Republicans, even among Trump voters. He is the most accomplished Republican governor, in my lifetime. He does it and then talks about it, instead of the other way around. So, my intuition is Governor DeSantis is doing better than demonstrated by the polls to this point. Some polls have him falling to third in the race, behind Governor Haley. I am dubious.
I didn’t have any hard data to backup this intuition but this week, I saw a poll using AI technology which made a different prediction. It suggests the race is not over yet.
I don’t know enough about AI polling to comment on the legitimacy of it. I do know the AI pollster recognizes the problem with traditional polling: their inability to create a random sample. The traditional polls ignore the math, so the margin of error cannot be determined. You can also throw in unethical players who want to skew the poll results to obtain a preferred outcome on election day. Maybe AI polling is something to consider.
The AI poll result is a stark contrast to all the traditional polls. Let’s see which is the best predictor. Another Iowa AI poll is to be released on Sunday, January 14. As a DeSantis supporter who rather not see the nomination be wrapped up by the end of January, I find the poll interesting. I know Iowa is all or nothing for DeSantis. He must win to remain a threat to Trump.
Despite being a former president with many accomplishments in his four years as president, many in the Republican party are still looking for an alternative. As of today, January 11, the race is still not over. Still zero votes have been cast.
That alternative is now narrowing to either DeSantis or Haley. Both have to do well in Iowa and/or New Hampshire or they are out. However, as I said previously, DeSantis is the only one with an actual chance to beat Trump for the nomination. There has been much talk of Haley recently and she is doing better in the traditional polls now, but she has become the establishment candidate and the establishment candidate will not win in the Republican primary. One-on-one against Trump, Haley will lose badly.
One-on-one Trump vs. DeSantis is the most interesting race the Republicans could have. Trump is clearly still the favorite, but DeSantis still has a chance. Let’s see what happens next Monday.
Update January 15
Please note:
- The traditional polls are mathematically unsound and should not be trusted. They have been unreliable for a very long time as I outlined in my post a couple weeks back. https://seek-the-truth.com/2023/12/31/trump-vs-biden-in-2024-say-it-aint-so/
- It is possible some polls are manipulated to achieve a result (i.e. to encourage or discourage certain groups of voters).
- Given endorsements received and his organization in Iowa, Gov. DeSantis should be doing better than polls show him to be. Some polls have DeSantis finishing third.
- The current traditional polls show Trump winning big in Iowa today. I am dubious of these predictions.
- Robert Salvador conducted an AI poll using a different methodology for predicting how people will vote (based on other known characteristics used by many marketing companies to target individuals). His poll shows the race a dead heat between Trump and DeSantis: Trump 38%, DeSantis 35%, Haley 14%, Vivek 13%. Is it possible that the traditional polls are this far off? Is it possible that AI polling will prove to be a better predictor? https://twitter.com/RobertJSalvador/status/174675627564640670
Results will be known within 24 hours. Are the traditional polls right about this one?
Unfortunately, even if the traditional polls are shown to be this far off, faith in them will not be shaken. There will be the same reactions as when hundreds of medical authorities revealed data during COVID regarding treatments, masks, vaccines, lockdowns, etc. The facts were not relevant, only the narrative; therefore, those treating patients with Ivermectin were portrayed as supporting “horse medicine” when in fact, Ivermectin was a Nobel Prize winner, prescribed to humans billions of times in the last thirty years, was on the WHO’s list of the 300 most effective medicines, and its effectiveness against COVID was backed by data and countless clinical physicians. Lies persist, but truth is the ultimate judge.
Dave https://seek-the-truth.com/about/
https://seek-the-truth.com/
prior election post: the-good-the-crooked-the-dull-and-boring
Seek the Truth 
If they ever debate, the fix will be in for Biden with hidden mics, questions given to Joe beforehand, cheat notes, and the moderator ready to cut Trump off like they did before.
LikeLike
Even with such unscrupulous help, Biden still won’t do well in a debate. The Democrats cannot afford to put him on a debate stage. He can’t address questions or serious issues in press conferences or informal encounters with media now. He cannot do it for ninety minutes even with help. The basement strategy, hiding Biden from attention, seems the best strategy for them. They will use some legal finding from Trump’s court cases to justify this action.
It is such a travesty, they are pushing Biden onto the campaign trail yet again, when he is clearly so feeble, not to mention corrupt and incompetent.
LikeLike
Elder abuse by them all.
LikeLike
President Biden is also a person to be pitied. He is clearly way over his head and is not running the show. As you say, how can his wife allow him to be abused in this way? She clearly has her wits and understands how he is being manipulated. I can’t imagine any spouse allowing this humiliation to their significant other. Does she so badly want the fame and prestige that comes along with the position? The Bidens should have been enjoying a retirement in Delaware the last four years, not subjecting our nation to the nightmare that has been the Biden presidency.
LikeLike