The last time I addressed the election, I hoped we could avoid a re-run of 2020 : trump-vs-biden-say-it-aint-so. What can we expect now that primaries are basically over?
First, it appears a sizeable number of Americans still wish for another alternative. Biden’s RCP job approval (average of fourteen polls) has slipped below 40% several times. His numbers were good initially, but he has not been above 43% since 2021.
How can a president so unpopular win re-election?
However, President Trump’s rating is not much better. His rating (per 538) has remained close to 40% the last couple years.
Which of these not-so-popular candidates wins re-election?
RFK Jr., the third choice has a favorable rating also in the upper 30’s, but his unfavorable rating is far lower than Trump’s or Biden’s. Kennedy is the most serious third party candidate since Ross Perot, but Perot, who garnered nearly 20% of the vote, did not win a single electoral vote. Kennedy can still improve his numbers, but it is probable Kennedy will also get no electoral votes, much less garner 20% of the popular vote. If the liberal media sees Kennedy as a threat to Biden, he will be attacked as much as Trump. Given his recent VP choice, he seems to be trending in the liberal direction (his natural inclination).
Will Biden Exit the Race?
March 31, 1968, President Johnson exited the presidential race roughly seven months before voting began, a very late exit which shocked the nation. There is even less time today, roughly five months before voting begins in 2024, roughly six months before the race is decided, yet pundits still speculate President Biden will exit the race. Joe Rogan predicts it happens in May. Others make similar claims, hoping to be rewarded for their prescience:
Biden certainly ought to exit given his age and mental decline, but who knows if he will? He will be forced out only if Democrats believe he cannot win, but absent a serious health condition not yet manifested, Democrats will ride the Biden horse until he falls over.
They will lie about Biden’s vitality, exaggerate Trump’s legal problems, funnel endless dark money into the campaign, and do whatever they can to manipulate the vote to their favor. If they think Biden can be drug across the finish line, they will do it. Democrats lost any scruples regarding elections years ago. If their faithful only understood Democrat’s real intent, they would be finished as a party.
If Biden exits, the successor has a short runway. Perhaps this throws the Republicans off track and does not allow time to tarnish the nominee’s image? If that is the thinking, expect a change just before the convention in August. But I think not. My guess is we have continued speculation about Biden, but he finishes the race. If he wins four more years, he can then gracefully exit stage left.
A health issue could easily derail Biden before November, but the problem is who replaces him? The party does not want Kamala Harris who is even less popular than Biden. Otherwise, Biden would have been thrown over already. They will ignore Harris and necromance Biden instead.
Four months ago, two replacements bandied about were Gavin Newsome and Michelle Obama. No other name has come forward since. I cannot see the American people accepting another other lesser-know substitute.
Michelle Obama has repeatedly said she is not interested. Is this a head fake? Probably not at this point. She has no political experience and bringing on a rookie after the two-minute warning is a dubious ploy. My guess is she remains on the sidelines at this point.
I thought Governor Newsome did poorly in a one-on-one debate with Governor DeSantis last November, but that could be spun into a win. The bigger problem is his California record. With millions leaving California for Texas, Arizona, and Florida, what can he brag about? Furthermore, will the American people question a switch to Newsome at the last minute? That seems a gamble.
If Biden’s poll numbers decline further, a new health issue could suddenly be invented. It is not out of the realm. Still, they have no compunctions with running a corpse again. Adjustments can be made later.
Trump’s Trials
President Trump’s carousel of trials has finally begun, the first in New York. A conviction is definitely possible, if not likely. This possibility ought to concern Republicans, but most simply state the cases are BS. Perhaps so, but what will the handful of currently undecided voters make of a conviction? The trials are certainly unjust, but some folks will not take time to understand the subtleties, and will base their opinions only on the result. Voters who passed on him the last two times are unlikely to jump on his bandwagon if convicted, and those few votes could be enough to alter a close race.
We all know Trump paid his lawyer to pay two women to keep silent. This is sleazy, but where is the crime? “Falsification of company records”, a misdemeanor, for the purpose of hiding some other election violation (which one exactly?) is a huge stretch.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/what-charges-does-trump-face-new-yorks-hush-money-case-2023-04-05
It is against New York state law to make a false entry, opens new tab in a company’s records. While falsification of business records on its own is a misdemeanor, it is considered a felony punishable by up to four years in prison if it is done to conceal or further other crimes.
In this case, Bragg said those other crimes include alleged election law violations and tax law violations. Federal law in 2016 capped individual contributions to campaigns at $2,700, and New York state law makes it a misdemeanor to conspire to promote a candidacy by “unlawful means.”
Trump’s classified documents case, one with more serious allegations, is moving ahead with pre-trial motions, although there is no firm start date yet. The other two cases have been delayed, perhaps until after the election.
Special Counsel Jack Smith says he wants a speedy trial, saying this principle “is consistent with the public interest and the rights of the accused”. Sorry, but the right to a speedy trial (the Sixth Amendment) is a protection reserved for the accused not a mandate to prosecutors.
President Trump is currently under a gag order regarding his current trial and is forced to sit daily in a New York courtroom. He has no opportunity to campaign anywhere but in New York City, and he does not have the time to prepare a defense for his other trials. Concurrent speedy trials may be what the government wants, but they are not in the defendant’s interest. This is not how justice should work for any American: multiple trials interfering with the campaign of a presidential candidate. You might think this was by design–which it surely is.
Strategy
Trump’s strategy should be limited to comparing his four years with Biden’s. Let the people decide who did better and keep quiet about all else. Trump should avoid giving his enemies any additional fodder to attack him. If he can somehow fend off the legal system, point at Biden the next six months, and not say crazy things, Trump should win. As much as I want that result, I am not sure if these three things are possible.
Biden’s strategy, on the other hand is to exaggerate the threat from Trump and MAGA. He cannot run on the issues: the economy, the border, foreign conflicts, the outlook for the future. A negative campaign is the only game he has (along with his allies attacking Trump via unprecedented lawfare).
Furthermore, the “Attack Trump” strategy is weak. Most people already know Trump. They should eventually ask: how much of a threat is Trump really? Did he actually end democracy after four years in office? Did he attempt to prosecute his political opponents while in office? Did his political opponents lie about him? Who is behind all the coordinated trials he is facing? Certainly all of Trump’s faults have been exaggerated to an incredible degree and his accomplishments ignored by a liberal media, a liberal media which also ignores the current president when he has trouble distinguishing prepared remarks from the stage directions on the teleprompter. Sky News host reacts to Joe Biden’s teleprompter battles (youtube.com) or continually has trouble finding his way offstage.
Who Tells the Most Lies?
The Washington Post’s tally of Trump lies reached 30,573 after four years. That’s an average of 21 lies per day. He told 21 lies every single day for four years, even on Christmas, even on vacations? This number seems embellished.
I haven’t counted Joe Biden’s lies, but he has interesting ones, ones he resurrects even after being exposed the first time:
- his uncle, shot down during WWII, was eaten by cannibals
- his son died in Iraq (he repeated this recently when consoling a mother who lost her own son in combat; Biden’s son served in Iraq but died of cancer).
- he once drove an 18-wheeler https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics/fact-check-biden-driving-18-wheeler/index.html;
- he graduated top of his law school class (he was actually 76th of 85);
- he was at the 9/11 site the day after the attack (nobody saw him there).
He lied about his role with the COVID vaccine (which he doubted while Trump was president). He lied about attending 1960’s Civil Rights rallies.
He claimed his dad formed his opinion on gay love after seeing two men on the street kissing in 1961. Who believes that? https://people.com/politics/joe-biden-father-men-kissing-interview/. He also exited his first presidential campaign in 1988 due to plagiarism.
Even CNN recognizes the problem. CNN unleashes on President Joe Biden’s ‘pathological’ lies – YouTube.
How many points should he be given for all these lies? Is the number of lies or the quality of them that counts most?
We all avoid the truth sometime, but who else wouldn’t hesitate before offering these whoppers to the public? Yet, media ignores these lies and claims his opponent lies about the weather.
On the Economy
Biden says the economy is doing splendidly: “Bidenomics is working,” he says. Why don’t we compare the numbers between his four years and Trump’s four?
Inflation, which Treasury Secretary Yellen said was transitory in 2021, was 3.5% in March 2024 and 3.2% in April 2024, still well above the Federal Reserve’s target rate and still too high to allow for the long-hoped-for interest rate cut.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_government_surplus_or_deficit
“Bidenomics”, unfortunately, ignores the increase in federal government spending, the driver of inflation. The administration brags about reducing the rate of increase of inflation, but we see the result for ourselves.
Biden claims to have reduced spending: “[I have presided over] the largest deficit reduction in American history. ” However, government spending has not declined; it is not a close call. Last year’s budget deficit was 72% higher than four years prior. 2020 and 2021 were anomalies due to COVID spending; however, in 2022 and 2023, the long-term trend returned (table above). The president’s proposed 2025 budget is $7.3 Trillion https://democrats-budget.house.gov/sites/democrats.budget.house.gov/files/HBC%20FACT%20SHEET%20-%202025%20Biden%20Budget.pdf. Biden is not returning to fiscal responsibility nor tackling non-discretionary spending, only talking of more taxes on the wealthy who already pay an overwhelming share of taxes (the top 5% of wage earners already pay almost half of all individual income taxes).
Biden’s jobs numbers have been mostly good, but the largest gains are for government and health care, not industries that should be fueling the economy. Job numbers were also good during Trump’s years.
GDP was a disappointing 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024. Again 2020 and 2021 were anomalies because of COVID (GDP was way down in 2020 and way up in 2021), but GDP growth the last two years is nothing to write home about.
On Media Corruption
Can we have a fair election when we do not have an honest media? They to fool us into thinking Biden is truly in controL
Biden cheat sheet shows he had advance knowledge of journalist’s question (nypost.com)
A cheat sheet held by President Biden during a Wednesday press conference revealed that the 80-year-old commander-in-chief had advance knowledge of a question from a journalist.
An NPR career employee was fired for calling out his bosses and, by extension, the Biden administration:
NPR Editor: Bosses Squelched Hunter Laptop Story | Newsmax.com A 25-year veteran reporter for NPR has called out his bosses at the network, saying they abandoned their journalistic standards in regard to the Hunter Biden laptop story because fair coverage might have aided then-President Donald Trump in his bid for reelection.
With the possible exception of X/Twitter, social media is not interested in fairly covering the election:
We looked at Facebook since 2008. We found 39 examples of Facebook directly interfering with political campaigns.” Bozell said, “This is, it’s systematic. … These Big Tech companies have got to stop interfering.
The MRC report on Facebook’s election interference comes just weeks after it published a similar report on Google’s election interference tactics. The Google report found at least 41 times the tech giant used its power to interfere in U.S. elections.
Tony Bobulinski, a former Hunter Biden associate should be a household name, but media distorts the landscape. Bobulinski had damning testimony about Hunter and Joe Biden, but his story was suppressed prior to the 2020 election. https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4917807/user-clip-tony-bobulinski-statement-hunter-biden. He testified to Congress again in 2024. The liberal media picks and chooses what to highlight; therefore, only a small portion of the public is aware https://www.c-span.org/video/?534302-2/hearing-biden-family-business-dealings-part-1.
The president himself is corrupt as well. I covered this in detail last year: no-corruption-to-see-here?
On Foreign Policy
The contrast between Trump and Biden is starkest regarding foreign policy. Trump in his first year defeated ISIS and later forged the historic Middle East Abraham accords (another significant event ignored by liberal media). The US entered no wars during Trump’s four years; Iran’s economy and spread of terror was reduced, and China was confronted by a US president for the first time in recent memory. Biden then lit it all on fire during his term.
Weakness from Biden has cleared paths for enemies to attack Ukraine and Israel. Weakness towards China has made the world a more dangerous place. President Biden, for reasons known only to God, refused to shoot down a Chinese spy balloon while it traversed the US. We have sizeable numbers of young Chinese men crossing the US/Mexico border while the Biden Administration again looks the other way.
The Afghanistan withdrawal was one of the worst foreign policy blunders in US history. We had about 2,500 troops in Afghanistan in 2021. The US could have remained in Bagram AFB like we have remained in Guantanamo, Cuba the last sixty years. In any case, we could have exited far more gracefully. Instead, we lost an important strategically located base, surrendered billions of dollars of weapons to our enemies, and lost 13 soldiers in a completely botched pullout.
The Biden Administration Middle East policy has been schizophrenic. They initially supported Israel’s incursion into Gaza while also providing aid for Hamas and hamstringing our ally’s advance. There were numerous reports that the administration was even aware of Iran’s massive air attack on Israel a few weeks back.
Back home, college presidents refuse to defend Jews on campus.
Congresswoman Stefanik: And Dr. Gay at Harvard? Does calling for the genocide of Jews violate Harvard’s rules of bullying and harassment? Yes or no?
President Gay: It can be depending on the context.
Congresswoman Stefanik: So the answer is yes. That calling for the genocide of Jews violates Harvard Code of Conduct. Correct?
President Gay: Again, it depends on the context.
After Israel was attacked a second time in less than a year, this time by Iran, college campuses protest genocide by the Jews. How do you figure? President Biden says he condemns anti-Semitism and has programs to address this problem. Not really. He has done nothing substantial and he appeases the anti-Semites in his base (need those Michigan votes).
On the border
Trump started rebuilding the wall and would have finished if re-elected. In three plus years under Biden, there have been 7.2 million border crossings–crossings, we know of. These are not just folks from Latin America, but also from China, Syria, Iran, and other unfriendly nations. Fentanyl is being produced by China and marketed to the US via the border. https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2023-05-03/u-s-deaths-due-to-fentanyl-nearly-quadrupled-in-5-years. Biden blames Republicans for not passing his do-nothing border reforms. Republicans have their own bill which Biden ignored.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/million-migrants-border-biden/
U.S. Border Patrol agents and Office of Field Operations officials recorded encounters with more than 7.2 million migrants who attempted to cross the Southwest border between the time Biden assumed office and the end of January 2024. Comparatively, the number of border encounters with migrants under the Trump administration was around 2.4 million, according to statistics provided on the CBP and DHS websites.
In other words, as of January 2024, the Biden administration had handled around three times the number of border encounters as the Trump administration.
Senator Biden many years ago talked about border security. He has changed his views since then: https://youtu.be/zb4SBMtCv_I?si=U0YnjXiSYXyEWm5Z.
Summary
In 1992, Bill Clinton won garnering just 43% of the vote. Trump leads the current five-way race with 41%. They are both known quantities, so it will be hard to sway the remaining undecided voters. Someone will win with less than half the vote.
The last two presidential elections were decided by a few votes in three swing states. Trump eked out Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016 (by 80,000 votes total) and Biden eked out Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin (by 40,000 votes total). This race also appears to be a dead heat to be decided by a handful of votes in a few swing states.
I have the same concerns as last December. I don’t know who wins, but I know it will be a monumental disaster for one side either way. A Biden victory is unthinkable from my perspective, yet others see a Trump victory in the same light. Continued suspect tactics are problematic as well. How you win matters. I worry also about the repercussions after the election no matter the result.
Dave https://seek-the-truth.com/about/
https://seek-the-truth.com/
Seek the Truth 