This past Wednesday, the CDC predicted cases in the U.S. could rise in May before falling again. CDC predicts a surge in COVID-19 cases through May thanks to variants | TheHill. Here we go again. The CDC has shown its willingness to adjust the science to fit the Biden administration’s political message. The current administration needs the COVID crisis to continue another month, so they can pass more multi-trillion dollar legislation. Without a COVID crisis, there is no justification for this spending. The CDC is happy to help them extend the crisis just a little bit longer.
I do not know more about the science than the scientists at the CDC, but I do know how to think critically and I try to tell the truth. I know their numbers don’t add up. We have been hearing of variants for months, yet cases have declined significantly in the last few weeks. The CDC is warning us about the UK variant which I am guessing is called the UK variant because it emanates from the UK. But wait a minute. Since January, cases in the UK are down 97% and deaths are down 99% (to 11/day). The UK variant didn’t ravage the UK during the last three months, but the CDC wants us to believe after it comes across the pond to the U.S. it is finally going to live up to its potential and really get nasty? How does the science work on that one? Do they think we are all just blinded and stop thinking critically when they use the word “science”.
When I heard in the CDC message a warning about “a decline in adherence to public health measures” I knew for certain they are lying. They want to re-impose those mask mandates. Please red state governors don’t make the CDC look bad again. Please continue the crisis and don’t let it go to waste. The Biden administration needs your help for its political agenda. But despite the warning, the first three days after the CDC prediction of a difficult May, the 7-day death average dropped 35 points, the biggest drop we have had in more than a month. Deaths are at their lowest point since July 10. The case average also continued its steep decline this week; it has dropped 28,000 in the last 23 days and is at the lowest point since October 3. Do you think maybe the CDC missed the mark a little bit? Do you think they are wrong yet again? There are still three more weeks in May. Maybe the numbers will suddenly reverse course and they will be proven right. We’ll see. More on the numbers below.
This sort of warning seems to come from the CDC at the beginning of every month. A month ago, the CDC Director Walensky told us about her feeling of impending doom COVID – Is the End Near? – Seek the Truth (seek-the-truth.com), yet COVID cases fell dramatically in April after which the Director told us that feeling of impending doom sort of evaporated. A month later they are looking to scare us again. Dr. Walensky isn’t the one sending the message this time, maybe because her credibility has been used up. The CDC just doesn’t know what to do if we all go back to normal. Maybe they’re afraid we will all go back to not caring what the silly CDC government bureaucrats have to say about anything. If they keep lying to us and making up stories, nobody should ever listen to them about anything again.
I have been saying the last month we’re on the verge of a big drop in cases and deaths and I stand by that still. That’s playing out now and despite the CDC’s new claim I am still certain in my own prediction.
Political Theatre
The very odd (and I would also say very amusing) picture below, in which the Bidens appear to be ventriloquists to the Lilluptian Carters, is a very telling one. Do you remember last week when Joe Biden announced the CDC had relaxed mask restrictions outside while he himself wore a mask outside? He continues to insist it is our patriotic duty to continually wear a mask. He makes a point not be seen without his mask on, but he let his guard down when visiting former President Carter. Why is nobody wearing a mask in the picture below? Does Biden do his patriotic duty only when it is convenient? Maybe someone should report the Bidens to the secret service because they are obviously trying to assassinate the ex-president and the ex-First Lady by infecting them with COVID.
What is Biden’s response to why he didn’t do his patriotic duty and wear his mask in order to protect our ex-president? Surely, that moment calls for patriotism? Of course, you will be glad to know the Bidens put the masks back on as soon as they left the Carter home. Can you make sense in that? My guess is they don’t really believe in all the mumbo-jumbo they tell you. Nevertheless, all of you should remember it is your patriotic duty to do what your president tells you, despite what he does himself.
The whole episode pictured above is rather amusing. I also find it amusing when Whoopi Goldberg said she will wear the mask until she is 90 because it is unsafe to take it off until every last soul in the whole world is vaccinated. Whoopi Goldberg ‘Not Going Outside Until I Know Everybody Outside’ Has Gotten COVID Vaccine | CNSNews. Whoopi also said previously if you don’t wear a mask you should be denied treatment for COVID. Boy, what a gem she is. She righteously decries all the people who she says died unnecessarily at the hands of President Trump, but she would be willing to blithely let people die from COVID because they don’t follow her standard. I’m so glad she is on TV every day and sharing her wisdom with millions of people; it’s people like her who make America a better place to live.
I also find it equally amusing and equally ridiculous when Kamala Harris was caught giving her husband a smooch while both were wearing masks. Both have been vaccinated as well, so what’s the point of this?
You want these people telling us how to live our lives and what it means to be patriotic? What did we do to deserve such leaders?
Vaccines
I noticed in the past week that the numbers being vaccinated have declined significantly. The main reason I think is that many appear to be suspicious of the vaccine 1 in 4 Americans say they would never get COVID vaccine: poll (nypost.com)
I assume people are skeptical because they either believe the vaccines are not effective or because they believe the vaccine itself is potentially harmful. Either one is a good reason to be leery. Let’s see if we can find evidence for either of these.
First, the CDC does appear to be tracking COVID cases and deaths among the vaccinated. This ought to be fairly simple and accurate to track these numbers. I found an article from about a month ago in which the CDC reported the following:
- About 5,800 of more 78.5 million vaccinated Americans — 0.0074% — have become infected by the virus, according to new data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Of these, 396 required hospitalization and 74 people died, the CDC said. The numbers are showing us how the vaccines are working in real life, beyond carefully controlled clinical trials
I heard a more recent similar results and we also have similar numbers coming from Israel and the UK. The vaccines have proven incredibly effective at doing their jobs. The results being reported now are even better than were reported in clinical trials. The chances of contracting and dying from COVID after receiving a vaccine are roughly one in a million. I like those odds.
What are the odds for the unvaccinated? About 33.5 million COVID cases have been reported in the U.S. The CDC estimated earlier that there have been three times more cases than actually reported. Let’s say 100 million have been infected. Approximately 595,000 deaths have been reported. That puts the odds of dying from COVID if unvaccinated at around 1 in 168. This data point clearly argues for vaccination over non-vaccination. Of course, as I said previously, this is an individual choice and there are factors which could mitigate against vaccination for certain individuals.
Next, let’s ask how many people have died or been seriously injured from the vaccines themselves? This number is much harder to track and much of the information circulating is anecdotal. I can’t find reliable numbers and there is a lot of conflicting information with some saying the number of deaths is more than a thousand and others discounting any vaccine induced deaths at all. I also can’t find discussion of this from the medical sources I relied on in the past. However, I am certain the number is not zero and I am certain the people who are concerned about the sometimes lethal consequences are quite rational. Also, I am concerned like others that if the news is bad, the data won’t be shared with us by the CDC and others.
On the other hand, I have my own anecdotal evidence. I had no side effect when vaccinated and everyone I know has either suffered no side effects or experienced relatively minor symptoms, an inconvenience worth the cost of being protected from the virus. I want to believe the vaccine is effective and it is clear for the vast majority of people it is beneficial. In the absence of definitive numbers on lethal vaccine side effects, I will withhold judgment on whether or not the vaccine is problematic. We all have to make do with the limited information we have to this point.
Many people, I suspect, would be willing to be vaccinated, but don’t want to be early adopters. I weighed the risk for myself and I determined it was best to get the vaccine. I believe there are risks to inaction as well as risks to action. However, for my kids, we are taking a wait and see approach.
Unfortunately, most of the articles I find on this topic are rather shrill. At one end there is the sentiment: “those crazy people who are against the vaccine are ruining herd immunity for the rest of us”; these people see an opportunity to tar their political opponents and don’t care so much about the facts. At the other extreme are those who think the vaccine is a government conspiracy, Louis Farrakhan being one of the most “out there” in this camp: Farrakhan dismisses coronavirus vaccine as ‘toxic waste’ | Fox News.
In the end, I think you need to make the decision for yourself. Everyone’s opinion should be respected and the shrill voices at the extremes ignored. I don’t blame you if you make a choice different than my own. I just pray all goes well for you with whatever decision you make.
One other data point I looked at tells me that aside from Louis Farrakhan and Whoopi Goldberg, most people are, in fact, acting rationally with regard to the vaccine. The age demographics paint an interesting picture. Right at 80% of U.S. senior citizens (65 and above) have received the vaccine. This is the most vulnerable group by far and they are responding accordingly. The participation for those 50-64, my own demographic, is right at 60%, higher than the younger age groups. The numbers drop off as we move down the age ladder with only one in three 18-29 year-olds having been vaccinated. This also makes perfect sense since the chance of the youngest among us dying from COVID is extremely low. Were I in the under 30 age group, I might be more hesitant as well. Why get a vaccine when your chances of dying from COVID are miniscule? If the numbers were more like the flu, which impacts young people significantly, or something more virulent, like Ebola, we would see a totally different set of numbers. As it is, people are weighing their own risks and benefits are responding quite rationally.
Like I have always said, trust individuals to make the right decisions for themselves; we don’t need the government to guide us like sheep. Although, I do think the Biden administration could do a better job in providing us with more data. Why not commission a study to determine the negative impacts of the vaccine? Forget crazies like Farrakhan and clear up any doubt there remains for the open minded. If there really are serious problems, tell us the whole story, don’t try to hide it. Biden said he was “going to shut down the virus”, but how many press conferences has he done on COVID? People may have forgotten, but Trump held daily press conferences for months and had his medical experts, Fauci, Birx, CDC Director Redfield, Surgeon General Adams, and others out front with him. The Biden administration talked a good game during the campaign, but the Trump administration is the one that set the actual standard for transparency with regard to COVID policy. Who knows what the current administration is doing with regard to COVID?
In addition, the Biden Team needs a better message with regard to the vaccine and masking. Recent polls have shown that more people would be vaccinated if the mask restrictions would be lifted for them. A rational policy regarding vaccine and masks could save lives, but Biden appears to be concerned about saving face and continuing to follow the cult of the mask. How about the administration also commission a study to determine who has the COVID antibodies and who does not? A large nationwide statistical sample tell us how close we are to herd immunity (and how long before we get there).
More COVID theater
The CDC came out with guidelines for summer camps saying 2-years old and up should be wearing masks whether inside or out during camps this summer. I live in the South and we routinely get into the 80’s and 90’s throughout the summer. Do we have to wait until a kid hyperventilates or gets heat stroke while wearing a mask on the playground before someone puts a stop to this? Kids are the least affected of anyone and the spread of the virus is greatly diminished outside, so what is the point of this? The youngest of kids are more likely to slobber all over the mask (not too sanitary, I would say) or chew their masks, perhaps even bite off and swallow a piece of it (something I’ve actually heard from a teacher), rather than use it properly. How about we use a little common sense here and stop subjecting kids to our mask fetishes? Dr. Fauci was asked by about these new guidelines by friendly media at NBC and he couldn’t articulate a rational answer. His response is also telling. He laughs off the question, not knowing how to defend something so silly. Dr. Fauci calls CDC summer camp guidelines ‘a bit strict’ (today.com).
Representative Jim Jordan reads Dr. Fauci the riot act in this clip. Dr. Fauci Defends CDC Summer Camp Guidelines as ‘Conservative’ After Outcry Over Rules (msn.com). Again, Fauci doesn’t know how to respond, insisting on decorum and trying to divert attention from his own silly rules and inconsistencies that have caused so many problems the last year. I don’t know how anyone can trust a government scientist after listening to phonies like Fauci and Walensky the last year. These people should be fired forthwith. Only when there is accountability for these people will I be less skeptical of government scientists.
Are you also tired of being lied to? Are you tired of the games our government leaders and high-placed bureaucrats play with us? I reflected recently on this excerpt from Brave New World, published 90 years ago; it still rings true today:
- It was the sort of idea that might easily decondition the more unsettled among the higher caste minds–make them lose their faith in happiness as the Sovereign Good and take to believing, instead that the goal was somewhere beyond, somewhere outside the present human sphere; that the purpose of life was not the maintenance of well-being, but some intensification and refining of consciousness, some enlargement of knowledge. Which was, the Controller reflected, quite possibly true. But not, in the present circumstance, admissible.
You see, they can’t allow you access to the truth because they don’t know what you might do with it. They must manipulate the truth because they believe they are the only ones qualified to know it. They pretend it is all for your own good. You’re not smart enough to know what to do with the unvarnished truth; you need them to explain it to you.
Numbers
Here are a few quick hits with regards to the COVID numbers. They should speak for themselves without too much explanation:
- COVID deaths in the U.S. are down for the 15th straight week; this week we had the largest decline in the last four. We are the verge of a really big drop in the coming weeks, exactly the opposite of what the CDC predicted earlier this week.
- Although the numbers vaccinated daily have declined, the U.S. as a whole is approaching 50% vaccinated (45.3% as of Friday, May 7), and for the last seven days, the U.S. has still vaccinated a little more 2 million per day.
- Twelve states have vaccinated more than 50% and eight more are between 48% and 50%. It seems certain the nation as a whole will get to 50% vaccinated. It is not clear yet if 60% vaccinated is achievable, but with the slowing in the rate that appears a little less likely now. Still, more than 255 million vaccines have already been administered and that is having a massive impact to this point.
- The 7-day COVID case average has fallen for 23 straight days and is now under 45,000 per day. In another week, the 7-day moving average will be at its lowest point since last June, when testing ramped up and we were just beginning to effectively measure COVID cases.
- World-wide COVID cases and deaths are now falling again after rising the last two months. Cases in India, the worst in the world right now, are finally starting to flatten after rising dramatically the last two months.
- In Israel, 60% of the population has been vaccinated and only 12 people have died of COVID in the last 7 days. New cases in Israel are down to 54 per day now and it appears they will decline further. The UK has vaccinated more than 50% of its population and deaths for this country of 68 million are down to 11 per day; cases are around 2000 per day.
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