COVID: Where’s the Problem Now?

I went to the hospital last week, and, for the first time this year, I was forced to wear a mask. The hospital, of course, provides the most flimsy of masks–as useless as teats on a bull. Later in the week, I listened to an MSNBC panel drone on again about how important masks are; they say “it shows respect for others”. Even if not effective, you need a talisman to prove yourself. Don’t question the experts or the cultists on the media panels.

This will save us all! Better than a vaccine!

During the last two weeks, I also noticed that Novak Djokovic, the number one tennis player in the world and winner of 20 grand slams was barred from the US Open for refusing a vaccine. He played unvaccinated last year, but now that COVID is in retreat, he is banned. Go figure. I noticed too that John McEnroe, Chris Evert, and the other ESPN tennis announcers studiously avoided mentioning Djokovic (at least all the times I watched). Maybe ESPN is concerned it might reflect badly on some of our politicians?

Also Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser, at the last moment, relented from requiring DC school kids to be vaccinated this fall semester; perhaps she was worried it would give lie to the narrative only Republicans have resisted vaccinations; massive numbers of black students might have been forced out of school in a city with almost no Republicans (were this Florida, labels of racism would be attached to Governor DeSantis. Bowser, a Democrat, gets a pass).

https://www.foxnews.com/us/dc-schools-covid-19-vaccine-mandate-hit-black-students-hardest

About 85% of Washington, D.C.’s student population between the ages of 12 and 15 is currently vaccinated against COVID-19, but only 60% of Black students in the same age range have received the shot. If the vaccine mandate is strictly enforced, it could cause more stress to minority communities that have already been disproportionately harmed by COVID-19 policies.

I share these reminders because many of us may have forgotten the COVID craziness never completely abated. Throughout last year, I insisted we were following so many indefensible policies; I am amazed some have persisted.

Thank God, vaccine mandates were struck down by the courts and/or were abandoned as elections draw near, but now there is a new battleground. The COVID vaccine, not COVID itself, has become the topic of discussion; vaccine efficacy and safety are the concerns we need to address as we head into the next cold and flu season. I faithfully received my flu vaccine every year, despite knowing it is generally at best 50% effective. I was never worried about its safety, so I never hesitated. The COVID vaccine is a different story, a different (and so far unproven) technology. It has many doubters and detractors (along with many supporters) for what appear to be legitimate reasons.

Who do we believe? I seek as many opinions as possible, and I trust what I can verify myself. There was indeed clear evidence early last year that vaccines had a positive impact (see more below). I touted the results myself, but as time progressed, vaccine efficacy waned (and waned very quickly). We heard a few claims of vaccine risks, most of which were suppressed or explained away initially. I stayed cautiously optimistic; I wondered if the dangers were overstated given that the vaccine was so widely dispersed. Wouldn’t such a widely used vaccine naturally have more people with side effects? Nothing comes without risk, after all.

Still, the evidence has grown and more governments and medical personnel are openly revealing problems. It is too much to ignore, Dr. Fauci not withstanding. As with all other problematic COVID results, government’s eagerness to suppress discussion of vaccine problems is too obvious and too much to bear (policy makers never admit they’re wrong!). The unwillingness to debate this important topic, the unwillingness to hear both pros and cons, makes me suspicious of government’s intent. I will support a vaccine if it is safe, but I am no longer certain this one is safe. I will support a vaccine for those who need it, but why does the government continue to press this on our children who clearly don’t need it (and never did)? Why do they continue to spout facts that just cannot possibly be true? Why do they never re-examine policies that cause more harm than good? My suspicion deepens.

Let’s dig into the details below.

Six Feet Apart?

COVID Threat Has Waned

The vaccine’s early promise declined as the more deadly Delta variant became dominant last Summer. There were as many deaths per month in 2021 as in 2020, the year without a vaccine. However, late in 2021, our situation finally improved due to Omicron, a less deadly strain. Initially, deaths from Omicron were elevated as well, but that phase passed quickly. Since February, deaths have fallen dramatically. By early April, the average was below 500 per day. This threshold has become the new normal:

  • 2020: The COVID death average never fell below 550 per day the entire year.
  • 2021: For two months (from 5/29 to 8/1), the average fell below 500 per day, similar to where we are today. However, that good result didn’t last. More than half the year, the average was above 1,000 per day.
  • 2022: From 4/11 to today (9/11), the 7-day average remained at or below 511 per day (deaths peaked at 511/day on 8/10). The current average is in the low 300’s; it continues to drop.

In 2020 and 2021, COVID killed, on average, 1,306 per day, making it the third leading cause of death behind heart disease and cancer. During 2022, that number has fallen by a third (to approximately, 882/day), and is still falling. The last five months the average is just 379 per day, making COVID the sixth leading cause of death today, below accidents, strokes, and other lower respiratory diseases. It is not going away, but the situation has markedly improved.

COVID is certainly still a threat, but it is not a national crisis–if it ever was. It has never been a threat to healthy children and young adults, yet school kids have been treated as lab rats throughout.

We have had two-and-a-half years to strategize, yet Dr. Fauci tells us today to skip normal medical precautions for the next vaccine (see below for more). Why the rush? Are we on the verge of another massive spike this Winter? If so, please tell us what is coming and let us decide whether we agree with your recommendation to throw caution to the wind. Explain to also us why we should ignore suppressed bad results from the prior vaccine. We no longer trust the experts–at least not without double-checking the numbers ourselves.

Accurate Measurements?

Before digging into the numbers, I note there is still some question about the measurements of COVID deaths. This past March, I noted the CDC reported it had over-counted deaths.

New-variant-new-milestone-what-to-expect

It (the CDC) says the problem was due to a “coding” error, but that’s a fairly large number of deaths to be related to a coding error. 416 pediatric deaths would be half of all the pediatrics deaths during this pandemic.

Also, according to many, the government encouraged hospitals to overcount by incentivizing COVID diagnosis and maximizing payments. Such claims from experienced medical personnel continue to be censored. Maybe the government did not realize these unintended consequences, but the government should have stepped aside before making it all worse.

Below is a small sampling of more officials discussing problems. You can die “with COVID” or you can die “from COVID”. How one makes the call, and how one is encouraged to make the call makes a difference. I am still confident that most reported COVID deaths are legitimate, but there is much grey area.

https://townhall.com/columnists/johnrlottjr/2020/05/16/the-us-is-dramatically-overcounting-coronavirus-deaths-n2568925

experts-confirm-covid-deaths-massively-inflated-actual-numbers-dramatically-lower-official-count

https://www.argusobserver.com/news/oregon-health-authority-confirms-covid-death-toll-can-include-unrelated-deaths/article_d5833508-ac88-11ec-8d53-9b0f51e4e315.html

Results are Improving even Still

We cannot quantify measurement errors, so I analyze the published numbers. Even if inaccurate, I assume they are consistently inaccurate, so we can still track trends over time.

After the initial peak during Spring 2020, the US had four more peaks, two in Summer and two in Winter. US deaths last peaked February 1, 2022 (at 2,799 per day). This year, there was no Summer peak to speak of. In fact, there have been no significant spikes the last seven months. The graph below depicts the decline since February; it also shows the very slight increase this summer and the downward curl in deaths since early August. Remember this graph, the next time Dr. Fauci or your friend quoting him tells you to be concerned. Remember it when he says we don’t use human trials any longer (see below). Don’t let down your guard: remain wary of COVID itself, but be even more wary of the advice provided.

The death numbers have risen and fallen with the weather, so if we examine seasonal numbers the last three years we can see patterns which explain what has happened and why. Deaths from COVID began piling up in Spring 2020, so let’s start with the Spring numbers:

SeasonTotal DeathsDeaths per day% Change
Spring 2020
(initial wave)
124,6641,355/day —-
Spring 2021 56,308 612/day -54.8%
Spring 2022 35,278 383/day -37.4% (since 2021)
-71.7% (since 2020)
COVID Deaths the last three Spring seasons

Vaccines were introduced in the US December 2020. By March, vaccinations were in full swing. Everyone had an opportunity to be vaccinated by late Spring 2021, and most people eventually vaccinated. There was a dramatic decline in deaths during this initial vaccination period, indicating vaccines were effective at preventing death (I found this same positive result by examining correlations between state vaccination rates and COVID deaths; https://seek-the-truth.com/2021/11/07/covid-october-surprise/). Spring 2021 were the glory days of the vaccine.

The simple fact that deaths in Spring 2022 were almost a quarter of what they were in Spring 2020 tells us something good happened this year as well. However, this year’s decline is due to the less deadly Omicron variant and the benefits of natural immunity, not the vaccines. COVID vaccines began losing effectiveness after six months; cracks were starting to show by Summer 2021.

SeasonTotal DeathsDeaths per day% Change
Summer 202084,421 917/day —–
Summer 202189,895 977/day +6.1%
Summer 2022 34,227
(through 9/10)
417/day -54.5% (since 2020)
-57.3% (since 2021)
COVID Deaths the last three Summer seasons

COVID bounced back in Summer 2021. The death numbers should have continued to decline among the vaccinated. The Delta variant emerged in Summer 2021; it was not targeted by the original vaccines, and vaccines were ineffective against this new, deadlier strain.

By Summer 2021, optimism was starting to wane (at least among those of us who actually studied the numbers and did not blindly accept CDC and NIH pronouncements). Many still touted the vaccine while those who questioned them were often censored. Last August, I highlighted concerns from Dr. Robert Malone who invented the mRNA technology: https://seek-the-truth.com/2021/08/03/covid-two-questions-answered-some-good-news-and-a-reason-for-pause/.

Now we can see clearly; the numbers weren’t lying and Dr. Malone should not have been censored.

Today, in Summer 2022, we have finally seen the sustained drop in deaths we expected from the vaccines.

As we enter Fall 2022, the situation is dramatically better. During September 2020, deaths averaged around 900 per day. By September 2021, with the Delta wave in full swing, that number was approaching 2,000 per day. Today, in mid-September 2022, we are around 300 per day.

SeasonTotal DeathsDeaths per day% Change
Fall 2020 134,044 1,473/day
Fall 2021 125,705 1,381/day -6.2%
Fall 2022 pending —— —–
COVID Deaths the last three Fall seasons

During Fall 2020 there was no vaccine at all. By Fall 2021, vaccines had been present for almost a year; yet, the decline in deaths is small. There should have a much bigger decline. In fact, it appears the only reason COVID deaths declined 6.2% last Fall is because Omicron became dominant around Thanksgiving. If Delta had remained dominant, there would have been no decline.

Fall 2021 was the nadir of this whole debacle. The hope for vaccines was fading (unless you were one seeking a profit from them). Deaths rose dramatically for the first time since vaccinations ramped up; they were not the silver bullet, after all. Vaccines couldn’t stop Delta. Many I knew just wanted COVID all to go away. The cycle appeared never ending.

While the vaccines were proving totally impotent against the Delta variant, the Biden Administration was issuing vaccine mandates. Yes, of course. Looking back, you should see the foolishness of it; the policy was likely intended only to distract from the Afghanistan disaster (August 2021). Vaccine mandates were never designed to beat back COVID. They were, in fact, far more harmful than helpful. Mandates are virtually gone today (except in hospitals and for folks like Novak Djokovic), yet the death numbers are back in the low 300’s without them. Go figure.

Where are We Headed?

Finally, we examine the last two Winters:

SeasonTotal DeathsDeaths per day% Change
Winter 2020-21221,327 2,459/day —–
Winter 2021-22169,333 1,881/day -23.5%
Winter 2022-23pending —— —–
COVID Deaths the last three Spring seasons

Clearly, Winter is the worst season. Both Winters had more deaths per day than even the initial wave. Will this Winter be better? It is too soon to say; however, we definitely are in a better position today. COVID deaths are as low as they have ever been. We were in a similar situation last Summer before Delta. I remain hopeful, but wary; this time we should also realize the natural way is how this virus was beaten back. We should realize we don’t need government “help” (which looks more like hindrance actually).

Voltaire Quote

One last graph ties these numbers together. The overall death numbers for 2020 and 2021 are virtually the same. However, we see a marked decline in deaths in 2022. Unless a new deadly strain arises (always a possibility), the COVID death rate for the entire year could be close to half of what it was the last two.

Date RangeDurationTotal DeathsDaily RateMonthly Rate
Feb 15 – Mar 22 2020 (initial stage)1.25 months 555 15444/month
Mar 23 – Dec 31 2020 (no vaccines)9.25 months 370,000 1,30740,000/month
Jan 1 – Dec 31 2021 (with vaccines)12 months 477,000 1,30639,750/month
Jan 1 – September 10, 2022 (Omicron)8.33 months 224,000 88226,850/month
Comparison COVID deaths: 2020, 2021, 2022

This past March, I concluded vaccines had little overall impact in 2021:

New-variant-new-milestone-and-What-to-Expect

Here is the most remarkable takeaway regarding the numbers above: the death rate has been consistent the last two years, averaging right around 40,000 deaths per month for both 2020 and 2021, and just slightly more than 40,000 per month during the entire pandemic. The rate also averaged a little over 40,000 deaths per month during the Trump Administration and a little over 40,000 deaths per month during the Biden administration. The rate was a little over 40,000 per month when we had vaccines and a little over 40,000 per month when we didn’t have vaccines. 

The 2022 story is clearly different. There seems a way out. We just have to find it, or perhaps let it find us.

We also need to understand our situation a bit more clearly in the future. We cannot rely solely on experts. For instance, the mRNA vaccine technology did not distinguish itself with the COVID vaccines, yet pharmaceutical companies are now investing in more such vaccines. We should demand transparency from them. We also need to question experts like Dr. Fauci and Dr. Wallensky, who know considerably more about medicine than most of us, but have not proven trustworthy. Last year, Dr. Fauci was an advocate for human vaccine trials:

https://www.christianitydaily.com/articles/11347/20210401/dr-fauci-admits-covid-19-vaccines-aren-t-safe-for-people.htm

The said interview was cited by Washington Gazette from a Jan. 29, 2021 New York Post report. The Gazette said Fauci “blatantly stated that the country needed to ‘make sure’ the vaccine truly is safe before” it is given to children by conducting “hundreds to a couple of thousands” of tests on children.

This year, however, the all-knowing Dr. Fauci changed his stance.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/fauci-we-dont-have-time-do-clinical-trial-updated-covid-19-boosters

“We don’t have time to do a clinical trial because we need to get the vaccine out now,” Fauci said on CBC this week, per The Epoch Times.

With the BA.5 being the dominant variant in the United States, “you have every reason to believe that [the updated formulation] is going to be better than having a vaccine that isn’t highly specific to the circulating strain,” also said Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

“That hasn’t been proven in a clinical trial,” he also said.

As I asked above, where’s the benefit of vaccines? COVID deaths were about the same in 2020 without a vaccine as they were in 2021 with a vaccine. Of course, the latest vaccines have been tested on mice. Maybe that’s good enough?

Dr. Walensky added to the discussion as well:

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, said on Aug. 29 that waiting for data from human clinical trials would leave the boosters outdated. 

“If we wait for those data to emerge in human data, not just mice data, we will be using what I would consider to be a potentially outdated vaccine,” she said. 

The vaccines were outdated after Delta struck last Summer, yet they were still mandated last Fall. We must learn from history (including recent history). We must listen to more voices before determining who to trust.

Our pediatrician interviewed Dr. Paul Offit, FDA board member, recently:

Dr. Offit voted against adding omicron antigens to this fall’s booster as there was limited data that it would provide any benefit. He was in the minority at the FDA advisory meeting, thus this fall’s booster will have new strain genetics in it.

In addition, I have often quoted Dr. Risch who has been a clarion voice throughout:

Dr. Harvey Risch, a professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health, called Fauci’s comments “reckless” since regulators didn’t previously rush vaccine companies to update the COVID vaccines.

Risch was also critical of Walensky, saying that the CDC shows that variant BA.4.6, which is not part of the updated boosters, is becoming a more prevalent strain.

“By the time that a supposed new winter wave of infections would occur in late November or December, it will likely be BA.4.6 and the new booster will be outdated anyway,” Risch told The Epoch Times.

Still, Dr. Fauci continues to refer to COVID as if it were smallpox and vaccines were the Holy Grail. I understand trusting the experts, but this one has been proven wrong so many times. Pease be careful when taking advice from experts in the future.

If only, we could have treated COVID from the start. How many fewer deaths would we have?

https://www.theblaze.com/news/ivermectin-covid-treatment-new-study

A new peer-reviewed study found that regular use of ivermectin reduced the risk of dying from COVID-19 by 92%.

Dr. Fauci is retiring soon. Perhaps his replacement will head us in a better direction?

Excess Deaths Rise

In the next COVID post, I will examine the increase in excess deaths the last two years. While COVID deaths are declining, overall US deaths (and around the world) have risen the last two years. COVID explains some of the increase, but not all. Life expectancy has declined as well. We appear to be less safe today. Why is that? There are also stories about vaccine dangers: blood clots, sudden collapses among young and healthy athletes, and more. Are the two stories related? Why haven’t vaccines saved us? Are they becoming the problem now? Can we finally have a debate in the open now?

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