COVID has been with us for two-and-a-half years. Life for many of us returned to normal long ago, yet, COVID still remains a topic of discussion. Why is it still top-of-mind for so many? Governments remain poised to re-institute restrictions as COVID cases remain stubbornly high in the US. Are they going to do a better job with the next round of restrictions than they did with the last? That’s doubtful. No restrictions would have been better in any case. Public officials say policy critics are disseminating misinformation, but more often than not government is the one wrong and the one surreptitiously attempting to control the flow of information.
There continues to be an ebb and flow with the current COVID situation, but the proper perspective matters tremendously. Please don’t let others, especially public officials, use fear to drive your reaction. I have learned the last two years, you cannot rely on the US government to be accurate or even honest; politics has encroached on COVID policy. You must rely on yourself and others you trust to make the right decisions and that requires understanding the actual threat of COVID. Below I provide what I see as game changing data from Germany. The data is simple to comprehend and significant to you, but will unfortunately be ignored by our government and media.
Fear of the Unknown
It is so important to understand the true COVID risk, especially your own risk. COVID is high risk for some while not so much for others. Most people don’t know the risks. Polls consistently show Americans overestimate the risk:
Previous Gallup research has found that the American public has a poor understanding of the true risks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and that misperceptions vary by political party. In December 2020, through the Franklin Templeton-Gallup Economics of Recovery Study, we asked 5,000 U.S. adults: “As far as you know, what percentage of people who have been infected by the coronavirus needed to be hospitalized?” Only 18% provided the correct answer, which at that time was between 1% and 5%, and a higher percentage of Republicans (26%) gave the correct response than did Democrats (just 10%).
Fewer than one in five knew the correct number. The majority were wildly over, with 26% guessing the risk was more than 50%.
The case fatality rate (CFR) is one measure of a disease’s risk. The CFR for smallpox is 60 times more than COVID, yet you are told COVID is a once-in-a-century event. COVID has been a serious problem, largely because it is so communicable, but smallpox was also highly communicable, and smallpox, among other diseases, has literally wiped out civilizations.
I say this only to put COVID into the proper perspective, not to minimize or dismiss the threat. Let’s acknowledge COIVD has been the third leading cause of death in the US the last two-and-a-half years while recognizing it is not as impactful as many other threats facing us.
President Trump, when he contracted COVID, said “do not let it dominate your lives”. He had the right perspective, but others said Trump downplayed the threat and ignored the deaths of so many. It was in their interests to diminish his standing, no matter what he said or did.
CNN’s Jake Tapper and Dr. Sanjay Gupta reacted in absolute horror. Tapper called Trump’s remarks “disrespectful” and told his audience, “It’s OK to be afraid of COVID, and it’s OK that it’s dominating your life.”
“Jake, this is so disrespectful,” Gupta said. “I’m not even sure I can think about this in some sort of cogent way. It’s incredibly disrespectful.”
President Trump went on to say it’s “not true” that people shouldn’t live in fear, adding,
“What does that mean, ‘Don’t be afraid of it?’ I mean, first of all, it’s a contagious disease that kills people, so what are you going to be afraid of if you’re not afraid of something like that? It’s gross, it really is.”
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo also played up the threat in 2020 saying that COVID equals death when asked whether his own policies were too extreme. That’s quite an exaggeration. The overwhelming majority contracting COVID survive. Roughly 1 in 200 COVID cases became fatalities. The threat is non-existent for healthy minors, and not very severe for younger adults. However, Governor Cuomo was the anti-Trump at the time and mulling over a presidential run, so it was the right time to sow fear.
REPORTER: What if someone commits suicide because they can’t pay their bills?
CUOMO: Yeah, but the illnesses may be my death as opposed to your death. You said they said the cure is worse than the illness. The illness is death. How can the cure be worse than the illness if the illness is potential death?
REPORTER: What if the economy failing equals death because of mental illness, the people stuck at home.
CUOMO: No it doesn’t. It doesn’t equal death. Economic hardship, yes, very bad. Not death. Emotional stress from being locked in a house, very bad, not death. Domestic violence is on the increase. Very bad, not death, and not death of someone else. See that’s what we have to factor into this equation. Yeah, it’s your life. Do whatever you want, but you’re not responsible for my life. You have a responsibility to me. It’s not just about you. You have a responsibility to me, right? We started here saying it’s not about me, it’s about we. Get your head around the ‘we’ concept. So it’s not all about you, it’s about me too. It’s about we.
COVID is not synonymous with death! COVID means death for a small percentage contracting it. For the average individual, the chance of death is noteworthy, but still minor. Even most of the elderly and unhealthy survive. Those at lower risk should not be asked to run in circles to justify the actions of politicians. The governor’s policies caused death and damage as well, likely more than the virus itself. He was run out of office for a sexual impropriety, but should have been impeached for sending COVID patients to nursing homes across his state.
This month, President Biden contracted COVID; he sounded as upbeat as President Trump a few years back. The president is in a high risk group, but his chances of beating COVID is good, especially given the special care the White House occupant is likely to receive.
The president is now receiving treatment, but why didn’t the CDC recommend any treatment protocols for the rest of us? As noted previously, many were not initially treated for COVID despite countless doctors proclaiming the value of various early treatments https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4930160/user-clip-dr-pierre-kory-senate-hearing-ivermectin-100-cure-covid-19.
The president provided the following statement after contracting COVID:
I guess you heard, this morning I tested positive for Covid. But I’ve been double vaccinated, double boosted. Symptoms are mild and I really appreciate your inquires and concerns. But I’m doing well, getting a lot of work done. Going to continue to get it done and in the meantime, thanks for your concern and keep the faith. It’s gonna be OK,” Biden, who was unmasked while standing outside on the Truman Balcony, said in the 20-second video the White House says was filmed by a masked and socially distanced videographer.
It’s wonderful he is doing well, but where are Jake Tapper and Dr. Gupta telling us to be afraid and commenting on the number of lives lost to COVID while the president pretends all is well? I suppose the time to fear is not quite upon us yet.
You can listen to government and media, but realize they have an agenda. You will be told when it is time to fear again, who you should fear, and who to vote against at that time. You will also be told who is solving the problem for you, even though measures often restrict your liberties. They tell you to vote for those doing something (it doesn’t matter if they are helping, as long as they demonstrate they care by doing something–anything). Understand why they say and do these things.
Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety. – Benjamin Franklin
Game Changing German Data
The tweet below, from Alex Berenson, is enlightening. Many say Berenson spreads disinformation; however, he has actually provided a font of good information on COVID. You are unlikely to hear this information from American mainstream media; it contradicts the narrative, so it must be ignored by our media.
This morning, the German Federal Ministry of Health posted a stunning tweet, admitting that 1 out of every 5,000 COVID jabs cause “serious side effects.”
The liberal narrative is: vaccines are necessary for everyone, including those not at risk themselves. Get as many as you can because more is always better. Because the German story defies the narrative, I find it more trustworthy. Furthermore, several European countries have been far more transparent with data than the US. Politics has not been as corrosive to their COVID policies as it has been to ours.
Berenson believes the threat presented to be understated. In any case, let’s work with the numbers provided by the German government. The risk for each dose, 1 in 5,000 (0.02%), is indeed small. With two doses and two boosters, the risk increases to about 0.0799% or about 1 in 1,251. The FDA has a long history of halting medicines for far lesser risks. Three deaths stopped the swine flu vaccine in the 1970’s https://www.nytimes.com/1976/10/13/archives/swine-flu-prograrm-is-halted-in-9-states-as-3-die-after-shots.html.
The FDA is reluctant to intervene with COVID. It is a political risk for them. Given the lack of FDA intervention, you are forced to decide for yourself: which risk is greater: COVID itself or the potential serious side effects from the vaccine? You, along with your doctor, must understand enough to make a correct decision.
The vaccine risk translates into 120,000 doses causing serious side effects in the U.S. alone. World-wide that number is 2.4 million serious side effects. That’s a lot of people impacted. Furthermore, once you commit to a vaccine regimen, your personal risk increases with each dose. Four doses are common for many and that translates to 1 in 1,251 at risk.
Compare that ratio to the risk of death for a child under 18. There are 74 million minors in the United States. Data from March suggests between 50% and 75% have been infected (https://abcnews.go.com/Health/americans-covid-inevitable-experts/story?id=83467858). Another study quoted by Dr. Campbell suggests as many as 85% have been infected. So we don’t overstate the risk, let’s use the lower number and assume half, 37 million, have been infected to date.
CDC says 1,312 minors have died from COVID in the last 2.5 years. So, the risk of an infected child dying from COVID would be no more than 1,312 out of 37,000,000 or 1 in 28,201. Remember, this is a low-end estimate.
You decide: the risk of your child dying from COVID is no more than 1 in 28,201 whereas the risk of a serious side effect after four doses (per the German government data) is 1 in 1,251.
There is no sleight of hand here. The calculations are straightforward. For minors, the risk of a serious side effect from the vaccine is at least 22 times greater than the risk of death from COVID itself (probably significantly more). If your child is healthy, the risk of vaccination is more than 100 times greater. Tell me again: why we should vaccinate our children?
Others see this clearly as well. Our pediatrician put the following in his newsletter:
I am still struggling with the National guidance for mass boosting for the healthy and the younger aged. Scientifically, it makes little to no sense in the context of the function of the current mRNA vaccines.
Current boosters offer little to no value to us that are not in a high risk pool and have had natural illness as I had in February.
On the other hand, if you are over 75, COVID is the greater risk. More than half of all COVID deaths were among those age 75 or above. The risk from dying from COVID for this demographic is about 1 in 13. With the same methodology, I calculate the risk from COVID (1 in 13) is almost 100 times greater than the risk of a serious vaccine side effect given a four-shot regimen (1 in 1251). My pediatrician offered this as well:
From a National Geographic article: “Additionally, not all experts agree that boosters are necessary once people pass the somewhat arbitrary threshold of age 50. I just think this sort of blanket notion of everybody over 50 getting this vaccine doesn’t make sense,” says Paul Offit, a professor of pediatrics in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and one of two FDA advisory committee members who voted against including Omicron components in the fall boosters. It makes more sense for people over age 70 because their less vigorous immune systems aren’t as good at stopping a mild infection from progressing to a moderate or severe one.
As I have said repeatedly, whether or not to vaccinate depends on your individual situation. One-size-fits-all mandatory vaccination policies can cause more damage than good. Yet, bad policy continues to be re-hashed. Eric Adams, has fired 1,752 people throughout his first year as mayor of NYC:NYC-Mayor-Fires-Another-200
Los Angeles and several other locales are now re-imposing mask mandates https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-21/covid-hit-la-on-track-to-reinstate-indoor-mask-mandate-next-week#xj4y7vzkg. This is an overaction to the risk and an ineffective measure to boot (https://seek-the-truth.com/2021/08/29/to-mask-or-not-to-mask-that-is-the-question/), but slightly better than the stance two years ago of “not one COVID case” in LA schools.
Dr. Fauci has created an army following his disastrous policies: dr-fauci-5-disastrous-covid-mistakes
The Current Trend
The past trends can tell us something of what to expect next. In 2020 and 2021, COVID cases began rising in late June. Deaths inevitably rose a couple weeks later. July 4, 2020 was the low point in deaths for that year (549 per day) and July 9, 2021 the low point last year (245 per day). Every year, the South heats up in June, people go indoors more often, and COVID spreads more easily.
So, what about this year? COVID cases have remained above 100,000 per day since mid-May, higher than they have been throughout much of the last two-and-a-half years. COVID cases hit a 5-month high on July 18, exceeding 130,000 per day; cases appear to be rising as they have the last two summers, although the upward trend is not yet as pronounced as it was the last two summers and may have peaked.
Despite the high case rates, there has been little increase in deaths. As cases quadrupled between April 2 and May 21, the death rate dropped 47%. Deaths dropped below 350 per day on April 26. Cases have basically remained at or below 350 through late July, inching up to around 390 now (as of 7/28). This is the best three month stretch we have seen yet. Last year, we were below 350 deaths per day for just 39 days (June 16 – July 25).
The death rate from COIVD on July 23 (392) is practically the same as it was on April 23 (356) three months earlier.
|Cases (in thousands)||40K||48k||61k||76k||95k||110k||111K|
Our pediatrician said the following in his newsletter:
All strains are showing no signs of increased disease morbidity. North Carolina data is very clear here as we have transitioned to BA.5 we are not seeing any uptick in hospitalization and death. In NC, we are ticking down to 4% of admitted patients needing a ventilator and 11% needing an ICU bed for Covid.
R0 infectiousness is in the range of measles: the new reproductive rate is 1 infects 12 which infects 144 which infects 1,728 which infects 20,736 which infects 248,832. That is a very very fast spread rate.
We have enough data now to compare all three years of COVID: 2020, the year with no vaccine, 2021 the year of vaccine hope, and now 2022 the year of Omicron and natural immunity.
Dr. Fauci has claimed for two years his policies have saved millions of lives, but vaccines reduced the death rate by about 1% last year (draw your own conclusions why there was not a bigger drop). So far, the death rate has dropped 26% in 2022. We have a more communicable but less deadly disease today. The benefit of natural immunity, far better than vaccine immunity, also benefitted us in 2022.
|Date Range||Duration||Total Deaths||Monthly Rate|
|Feb 15 – Mar 22 2020 (initial stage)||1.25 months||555||444/month|
|Mar 23 – Dec 31 2020 (no vaccines)||9.25 months||370,000||40,000/month|
|Jan 1 – Dec 31 2021 (with vaccines)||12 months||477,000||39,750/month|
|Jan 1 – July 23 2022 (Omicron)||6.75 months||201,000||29,778/month|
What to Expect?
Predicting COVID has been extremely difficult to say the least. A doctor friend warns we need to remain vigilant because a new, more deadly strain can always strike us. The situation is better at the moment despite many new strains and vaccine limitations. Further, the current strains are so far removed from the original vaccine, how they can possibly be effective at all? Our pediatrician said the following:
BA.5 is taking over as the new strain with excellent immune evading and vaccine evading skills. Every other strain is fading fast.
Yes, what do we do with the current crop of vaccines? He hopes for more vaccines specific to the current strain:
The government is now pressing for Omicron strain specific vaccines for the fall which makes sense if we want to slow transmission as the current generation one boosters are not very useful in that regard. Novavax is going to be in this space as well for those that are uninterested in the mRNA vaccine type.
Prior vaccines are so tainted I wonder if Novavax will even be accepted? This is the consequence of our government’s dishonesty.
Will the juice of Novavax be worth the squeeze? Time will tell. But you have other options as well. It has been said many times before but this advice from our pediatrician bears repeating:
I remain steadfast in the belief that lifestyle decisions that promote immune solvency are by far the best avenue to disease prevention and morbidity prevention moving forward. Vaccines are useful for high risk individuals but not at the expense of quality self care.
In summary, this is the year of natural immunity and the less deadly Omicron strains. We are in late July and deaths have not yet begun to rise significantly. We may still see a significant rise later this year, but currently there is no impetus. Nothing indicates the August death rate will be anything close to the higher death rates of the last two years.
Dr. Campbell can always be relied upon to give us a honest assessment. He shows the results of natural immunity are mixed here, but still far better than vaccine immunity. He remains optimistic with BA-5 becoming dominant and natural immunity providing relatively good protection (his assessment). He also provides a warning about general health concerns, echoing the concerns of our pediatrician. Focus on your overall health to protect against COVID as well as other serious diseases.